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Which prediction was supposed to happen already?
(sopuli.xyz)
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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2023
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It doesn't have to be perfect. It just has to be better than humans.
And it is.
who's liable when it crashes? And it's "better" than human drivers in very limited situations with a human driver behind the wheel to take control.
I'd say if the human is supposed to observe and take control then the human is liable unless something about the autopilot made it impossible to intervene (e.g. no time to react). If it's a completely autonomous autopilot then ofc the manufacturer is liable, who else could it be?! But autopilots would probably have to pass some safety tests before being allowed on the road, and you'd have to prove negligence or malicious intent by the manufacturer (e.g. faking test results). This would be similar to things like medicine, where the manufacturer just can't guarantee 100% safety.
Regarding "better", afaik it's on average. So if you let 1000 humans and 1000 autopilots drive 1000 miles each the autopilots will produce less accidents overall. Idk if autopilots get better or worse by allowing human intervention, a human could also take control at the wrong moment after all.
Tesla has allegedly played with that by disengaging autopilot something like half a second before a crash, so it doesn’t add to statistics of crashes that occurred while it was on.
Waymo and cruise are already on some roads without any human drivers
This is potentially the killer app of self-driving. If it gets safe enough, the company offering self-driving cars can take responsibility for insurance (so long as you use the self-driving feature).