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this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2023
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I don't know, I really think it's a mix. A relatively small attack would have had a similar rallying effect without commensurate vitriol towards the ruling party. It may have been that Netanyahu believed, or chose to believe, that the impending attack would not be nearly so large or vicious as it ended up - another metaphorical bottle rocket barrage that he could use to distract from his other authoritarian undertakings.
But I do agree that any conspiracy that asserts that the current Israeli government was looking for hundreds of Israeli deaths is deluded. Clearly, they did not see or chose not to see the scale of the coming attack.
But in this world, Netanyahu would have to trust Hamas to stage a small attack so much that he'd have the military stand down and give them free reign for like 16 hours. Absurd. Not to mention they were already getting small attacks from Gaza and regular violence in the West Bank from the crisis they created that has spiralled out of control. Again, extreme risk for no reward. And the most certain outcome would be gaining nothing and losing his power, legacy, and freedom when caught (if he wasn't executed for treason).
In people's imaginations massive conspiracies are easy to pull off. In the real world, conspiracies that would necessarily involve dozens to hundreds of people (and multiple branches of government) don't stay secret for long -- especially when they're catastrophically fucked up. It takes just one chatty Kathy, one drunk brag, one guilty conscience, one failed attempt at blackmail, one low-level conspirator who wants a book deal to topple the house of cards. Humans are nearly as bad at conspiring as they are at assessing risk.