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this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2023
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This is such a bizarre conspiracy theory. Netanyahu will be remembered as being asleep at the wheel for the worst attack on Israel in its history -- and the worst massacre of Jewish people since the Holocaust. His political career, built almost solely on his ability to protect Israelis from exactly this kind of attack, is almost certainly over. His ability to obstruct his corruption trial is too. That's extreme risk, no reward and really makes no sense at all.
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."
Netanyahu openly admitted to enabling Hamas in order to delegitimize other Palestinian groups. It's not even a conspiracy theory it's just a fact.
Though vile, encouraging strong extremists relative to moderates to divide Palestinians and discredit the idea of Palestinian government is not remotely the same thing as conspiring to murder thousands of your own citizens for political gain.
(Also, he didn't openly admit it. There's an unconfirmed report that he said that during a 2019 meeting. Others close to Netanyahu have said that was basically the policy whether he said it or not.)
https://archive.md/APxHn
I think the claim that this was Netanyahu's strategy is a bit stronger than you think.
It has certainly backfired on him.
Normally, buffoons being caught out by their buffoonery would be funny but it cost the lives of ~1000 civilians.
I don't disagree! I wasn't disputing that it was his policy, only that he's openly admitting it.
All good, mate. Wasn't having at you.
I do think he has openly admitted to his colleagues according to those articles.
Latest polls show indeed a huge drop in support for Netanyahu's party.
I don't know, I really think it's a mix. A relatively small attack would have had a similar rallying effect without commensurate vitriol towards the ruling party. It may have been that Netanyahu believed, or chose to believe, that the impending attack would not be nearly so large or vicious as it ended up - another metaphorical bottle rocket barrage that he could use to distract from his other authoritarian undertakings.
But I do agree that any conspiracy that asserts that the current Israeli government was looking for hundreds of Israeli deaths is deluded. Clearly, they did not see or chose not to see the scale of the coming attack.
But in this world, Netanyahu would have to trust Hamas to stage a small attack so much that he'd have the military stand down and give them free reign for like 16 hours. Absurd. Not to mention they were already getting small attacks from Gaza and regular violence in the West Bank from the crisis they created that has spiralled out of control. Again, extreme risk for no reward. And the most certain outcome would be gaining nothing and losing his power, legacy, and freedom when caught (if he wasn't executed for treason).
In people's imaginations massive conspiracies are easy to pull off. In the real world, conspiracies that would necessarily involve dozens to hundreds of people (and multiple branches of government) don't stay secret for long -- especially when they're catastrophically fucked up. It takes just one chatty Kathy, one drunk brag, one guilty conscience, one failed attempt at blackmail, one low-level conspirator who wants a book deal to topple the house of cards. Humans are nearly as bad at conspiring as they are at assessing risk.
It worked out great for George W Bush.
Apples and oranges.