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Ukraine's Armed Forces advance another 1,400 metres on Bakhmut front
(www.pravda.com.ua)
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this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2023
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The overall "pattern of the war" is that Russia took a bunch of Ukrainian territory early on, and then has spent the past year having its meat ground and losing big chunks of occupied territory back to the Ukrainians again. Bakhmut has been notable because it was an exception to this overall pattern. We may now be seeing the pattern reassert itself there, though.
That is the common narrative among Americans and Redditors, but it is, as to be expected, based on an uncritical acceptance of numbers and stories from untrustworthy sources, sources with an obvious interest in keeping support for the sending weapons and other military support to UA. This post, for example, coming from Pravda UA and just passing along the message from the MoD. No critical look at any of it from liberals, just cheerleading based on vibes.
And also reality. Or does Russia still secretly occupy Kherson and Kharkiv? Did they only pretend to launch a major mobilization of new troops and call up prisoners to fill the ranks?
The day-to-day changes of the control map are less clear, especially now that there's major operational security around the counteroffensive, but I'm speaking of the overall "pattern of the war" here.
Kherson and Kharkiv are both examples of Russia giving up territory with minimal losses. Kherson was a very famous preemptive withdrawal, with Russia going back on its statements that it would protect the people there. I feel bad for the people there who believed it and tried to build back a functioning society, as they were then subjected to UA's fascistic extremist militants that have wide berth to determine a very low bar for being a "collaborator".
Control maps don't mean much by themselves. A party taking a large strip of mud gets very different media treatment depending on who you read and which party gained it.
While personnel losses can be debated, there is no debating that Russia is losing territory.
You raise really good points, but I'm also not seeing much information to support the idea that Russia is doing well in the conflict. It looks like the Ukrainian outlets are more reliable than the Russian ones, judging by how Ukraine actually is taking back territory and Russians are losing it.
I think that there's a significant amount of propaganda and distortion so the West keeps funneling equipment to Ukraine. I also think that the equipment Ukraine is getting is doing better than most people have predicted.