What kind of "analysis" is that? It's a pile of nonsense.

Oh, comrade, are you unaware that presidencies happen in a vacuum where the only variable that affects them is time? I can see how confusing this might be for you then.

Obama had the celebrity and fan base of a rock star. People really loved him. Biden has the celebrity and fan base of a really old guy on a sitcom that people know the name of but wish he was replaced because he's too old and they don't like him. Also and of course - Obama didn't have a Gaza war happening that would most likely even ruin his reelection chances.

Not disagreeing with your overall point, but don't forget that Obama had the entire Right Wing media and their astroturfed lackies as his heel. I still remember playing spot the black guy when the pictures of the anti-healthcare rally in DC came out. He was the Secret Muslim Terrorist Communist President who wanted to give everyone healthcare, supposedly. Don't get me started on the reality of it though.