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this post was submitted on 07 Nov 2023
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chapotraphouse
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Nah he would most likely still win today imo because Trump can't make a meaningful campaign that actualy attacks Biden from the left. The left can't really make an anti-NATO stance that doesn't boil down to real communism(good for movement building but you'll never win at electorialism lol) and anything from the right is just poisoning the well.
But the main point is yeah the left will always be blamed. I can empathize that Bernie was the millennial voters first experience with this but anyone that is old enough to be politically active for the past 8 years doesn't have an excuse to fall for this rhetoric anymore. If you're still giving any shits about what libs say or think and let that affect your own decisions then you are also part of the problem.
Not running a meaningful campaign was literally Biden's successful strategy. Given that neither party can any longer offer the majority of Americans any improvement in their standard of living, I think we'll increasingly see one term presidents as people just vote against the person they've seen the most of most recently and so dislike the most intensely, i.e. the incumbent
There is a difference between providing it and promising it. The democrats absolutely can still promise a lot of very easy and populist shit. Meanwhile these same very easy policies are pretty much against everything Trump supporters stand for, very easy example most Trumpists hate student debt relief meanwhile Biden can just promise that, "fail" to deliver it and the cycle continues.
Majority backs student loan debt relief: poll(2022, slightly outdated but closest I could find)
Student debt relief is literaly a 80% Dems in favor vs 80% republicans against split. The Democrats can easily promise and not deliver. Trump can't because their voters don't want it. I mean they do actualy want it but prefer to think as owning the liberal college students.
Of course the usual mechanics apply, the Dems love the opposition and benefit from being the both sides party i.e promise shit while simultaneously not delivering it to keep the capitalists happy and in control. Biden can lose obviously, but if this mechanic holds I don't think it will be that hard for him.
Yeah, that's true, and Biden may well win. We'll see one way or another. But I would say that promises of what you'd do in power are much more convincing when you're not already in power and not doing whatever you're promising
Biden will most likely not win. Trump might not even have to run a meaningful campaign, he just has to keep his support while watching Biden’s support slip.