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How McConnell helped engineer Manchin's exit
(www.politico.com)
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this post was submitted on 10 Nov 2023
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Unless we see an enormous surge in voter participation. I think next year is going to be very bad. We're looking at the house, Senate, white house, & supreme Court all controlled by maga Republicans
This isn't true at all.
The house is almost statistically guaranteed to flip back to Dems due to the legal rulings on redistricting in multiple states.
I think people are vastly overestimating Donald Trump's chances at taking the Whitehouse off this one nebulous poll of dubious accuracy more than a year out from the election. This isn't even taking into account the fact that he is about to get fisted in Federal Court.
The Supreme Court Justices that Donald Trump got sworn in have repeatedly refused to hear issues he has tried to bring to the court or straight up ruled against him. They still suck ass though, don't get me wrong.
The one area that is going to be rough is the Senate
All rulings will be delayed as much as he can and appealed if it isn't what he likes.
He's going to stretch this as far as time, the legal system, and his finances allow.
This might fly in civil court, which it has for him in the past. But even there we are starting to see less and less tolerance for delay with the on-going fraud trial.
However, this is not the case in criminal court, especially in the Federal system. I don't think people truly understand the magnitude of these Federal criminal cases. They are unquestionably the single most important criminal proceedings in modern American history, and the court will not allow its power to be minimized or manipulated.
This is so much bigger than Donald Trump. It is about the court demonstrating and further legitimizing the public perception that the power of the US criminal justice system cannot be usurped or avoided by anyone. I keep saying it, but I will say it again. When you fuck with the integrity of the system, the system will fuck you back.
I get that, but I think he's counting on Former President status and either:
Whether this will work will depend on if he can leapfrog and at least catch a "Canon" at some point in each line and to keep his appeals running.
I'm less worried about this, but I've been wrong before.
I’m worried about it AND I’m worried of the framing that holding one branch is at all enough. Look what Rs have done in states where they want to block governors.
They really don’t care about anybody but their own tribe. They are not “conservatives” and have openly make constitution defying motions beyond the coup attempt.
This is the one part of your comment where you're wrong: Republicans are more genuinely conservative than they've ever been before. Conservatism is an unbroken line from Royalists to Confederates to NAZIs to MAGA, and pretenses towards it being about "cautious moderation" as opposed to "supporting hierarchical power" have always been lies.
This is fair.
I’m saying they are not acting according to the caricature of a “conservative” they hold out to get votes. And the video explains that this has been a core feature of “conservative” for a while and provides a definition of what it really is.
My fear is this. Trump's support appears to be building while Democrats are busy complaining to each other that Biden's too old. I work with guys who say, "my 401k was doing better under Trump. He's an ass but I think I'll vote for him." I'm legitimately nervous.
Yes, the stock market did so much better under Trump. There are many many reasons underlying the performance of the market under each of them.
For example most of the time trump was president was pre pandemic, but Biden was president through most of the pandemic. Trump was also president during the pandemic stimulus and enhanced unemployment payments, then Biden was president when all of that spending materialized into inflation which spooked the markets, and then caused interest rates to rise, prompting the tech layoffs
My 401k did considerably better under Trump. If that growth continued for 5-10 years I'd be able to retire quite early. But there are things that are much more important than a 401k.
(Saving for retirement is incredibly important if you haven't started yet. Please. Please. Start now! The secret sauce is time. The younger you start the better off you'll be - finger wagging PSA over)
Personally I've started three times!
Sadly retirement savings don't last long when emergency expenditures keep knocking on the door.
I'm sorry to hear that. You definitely can't save if you can't eat. I hope your situation gets better soon.
Considering 401ks are generally based on rich people getting more money, I wouldn't be surprised.
The stock market is one way the wealthy stay wealthy but that's different than a 401k, which is different than a Roth IRA.
Well of course there's differences, no one's saying it's exactly the same way in all forms and fashions. But that doesn't mean they don't have the same root, numbers on bar charts only ever going up and never coming down (which makes investors sad... and litigious). 401ks are a little more insulated from direct Stock Market transactions (depending on how you disperse it, of course), but that doesn't mean they're completely unaffected by it.
There's no guarantee that he goes to jail
Yeah and being really confident about a win worked in 2016 didn't it........
I was one of those who thought, "Hillary's going to walk away with this" I often think what the world would look like is she appointed 3 supreme Court justices. I bet that's a nice place