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this post was submitted on 12 Nov 2023
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As a history scholar, I've learned that the last time there was a major schism, it was bloody and violent. How bad would it be this time around? And, as a non-Catholic, how would I be affected? The answers to these questions will determine how I prepare for the event.
The last time there was a major schism the nations of the day were explicitly aligned with one side of the other of the schism and the states attempted to crush the other side of the schism by force. Part of the separation of church and state in modern nations is meant to prevent church issues from becoming state issues (see the recent mainstream schism in the Methodist chuch which was completely peaceful and over similar issues).
Except in this case I think that American Catholics are more willing to resort to violence and, even if the schism doesn't make it all the way to St. Peter's Basilica, it could be messy in the US and parishes aligned with the Pope come under attack by members of parishes not aligned with the Pope.
It won't be state violence, though. No side is going to have the army backing them.
I'm not a history scholar, but I was raised Catholic. My guess is that if there is a schism to happen again, it will be American conservative Catholics who would split and set up their own church, like how Eastern Orthodox set up their own church as they do not recognise the pope in Rome but rather the one in Constantinople (aside from differences in theology).
I'm not sure how bad the schism might be though. Pope Pius XII did modernise the Catholic church in the 1960s to allow Catholic churches to speak in local languages; but a tiny minority of conservative Latin-speaking clergy split to continue the old way. That group has been rehabilitated now. Even if the present American Catholic conservatives declare split, we don't know how many will follow. Probably the best case scenario in this event is that there will be politicking behind the scenes to undermine Pope Francis.
Edit: oh I hadn't realise you're asking specifically how you might be affected personally by this. My guess is that it depends how bad the schism is, as I mentioned. I think the bishop who was sacked is a Trump-supporter. If significant amount of American Catholic conservatives follow him and Trump, that would turn more Americans to support the right. I'm not sure what you're political leanings are but that might be good or bad.
Buy a gun if you’re American. They’ll probably try to implement the theocratic state of the Texas Papacy