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this post was submitted on 01 Dec 2023
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chapotraphouse
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This is vibes based analysis, but I doubt this. How often are special forces types involved in coups elsewhere? My impression was that the tactical operator types in the US were given carte blanche to run wild and do whatever they want. Why would they revolt? Lower level grunts that are paid and trained worse, exposed to more regular danger and are lower in the military hierarchy seem more likely to do cool stuff. Again though, vibes based analysis so I'm open to being wrong.
That's not usually what happens, typically it's a group of high-rank officers that split the military while having profiles that are large enough among the rank and file for them to remain loyal as they're trusted more than the politicians that they're opposing. This kind of thing usually requires someone to have a necessarily high profile among the military in order to split the armed forces in such a way that your split is stronger than the side that remains loyal to the existing government. You don't really get that by being nobodies in the lower ranks.
You are right. Coups almost never are the lower ranks rising up but a handful of high ranking officers and elite military units backing them. It's elite units like modern special forces loyal to a specific high ranking military commander that end up the muscle and shock troops for coups, the storming the presidential palace and congress buildings taking the government into custody. Their elite status is what keeps the rank and file military along with law enforcement from making serious efforts to get in their way.
Just look at how it often goes down over the last few decades across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Even funnier when you find out many of those special forces units were trained by US special forces. This isn't new and goes all the way back to the Roman era, when the elite Praetorian Guard units would regularly be the get-your-hands-dirty muscle for coups.
And if you turn those elite units into bioweapons that obey orders perfectly then you vastly increase the ability of those officers to perform those coups. They no longer have to think about whether or not they will have their support, they will obey the orders given to them.
Concentrating too much power in the hands of too few people is a recipe for disaster.