Source? Because the only “deal” I can find is basically a surrender of Crimea and the Donbas in 2022.

https://www.aaronmate.net/p/ukraines-top-negotiator-confirms

Again, source?

• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/russia-s-war-economy-sees-key-sectors-shrugging-off-sanctions
• https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/08/euro-zone-enters-recession-after-germany-ireland-growth-revision.html
• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/finland-s-economy-shrinks-most-since-2020-in-broad-based-decline
• https://www.euronews.com/business/2023/11/24/german-economy-shrinks-as-household-spending-falls

Europe is in deep shit because it got cut off from cheap pipeline gas. Plain and simple. Now, Europe is forced to buy LNG on the spot market at an order of magnitude higher price, and a large chunk of this LNG still comes from Russia. The only difference is that now it's sold through middlemen at even higher markup. German industry is no longer competitive with China, and it's now shutting down

• https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-11-28/germany-budget-crisis-worlds-worst-performing-major-economy
• https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/10/why-germanys-once-miracle-economy-is-turning-into-a-mirage

The three things propping up the Russian economy are the high oil price, China and massive government intervention.

Russian factory activity grew at fastest pace in over six years in September. This should not be a surprise to anyone because western companies left a void that's now being filled domestically

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-factory-activity-grows-fastest-pace-over-six-years-sept-pmi-2023-10-02/

On the other hand, US manufacturing output actually shrank to lowest in three years

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-03/us-manufacturing-activity-shrinks-by-most-in-three-years

Because lobbing shells at eachother is Soviet doctrine, not NATO. NATO doctrine is to bomb the everloving shit out of someone with massive air superiority. If NATO decided to send 200 F35s to Ukraine, there would be no need to more 155mm shells.

Because lobbing shells is what actually works. Vast majority of casualties in the war come from artillery fire. That's the reality. All the magic NATO wunderwaffe failed to make any visible impact in the conflict. IF NATO decided to send 200 F35s to Ukraine, they would just be shot down by Russian air defence. Also, the fact that you think F35s would make any difference in this kind of war shows your profound lack of understanding of the subject you're attempting to debate here.

And because it’s not doctrine, nobody really wants to build more artillery factories that will sell great now, and get mothballed in 5 years.

NATO isn't building artillery factories because NATO shipped all its industry overseas and isn't capable for producing the basics that any army needs.

And tell me, when a dictator known for annexing other countries demands appeasement, how effective has that been historically? I

Once again you show deep and profound ignorance of the subject you're opining on. To help you get a bit of an understanding, let's take a look at a few slides from this lecture that Mearsheimer gave back in 2015 to get a bit of background on the subject. Mearsheimer is certainly not pro Russian in any sense, and a proponent of US global hegemony. First, here's the demographic breakdown of Ukraine:

here's how the election in 2004 went:

this is the 2010 election:

As we can clearly see from the voting patterns in both elections, the country is divided exactly across the current line of conflict. Furthermore, a survey conducted in 2015 further shows that there is a sharp division between people of eastern and western Ukraine on which economic bloc they would rather belong to:

Ukraine is clearly not some homogeneous blob, but a large country with complex cultural and ethnic situations.

In fact, what we see in Ukraine is directly modelled on what NATO did in Yugoslavia where NATO recognized breakaway regions and then had them invite NATO to help break up Yugoslavia. Russia recognized LPR and DPR and then had them invite Russia to help. So, if you want to know how that works out then you can look at modern Serbia and the breakway regions.

“There wouldn’t have been a war if putin got what he wanted without one” is a shit take

There wouldn't be a war if NATO just got to do what it wanted is the only shit take here.