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this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2023
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If you are an ally of US or NATO in general, the conflict in Ukraine is probably a rude awakening as to what you can expect if you get into a conflict.
What? Had Ukraine been in NATO this would've been a full blown war with boots on the ground from the entirety of NATO, not just weapon deliveries. And Russia would've been completely unable to advance. NATO would have complete air superiority inside the first month, any visible Russian base within or near Ukraine would be decimated and their only course of action would be fortifying positions in cities among the civilian population. Trying to fight a regular war would just end up in a decisive defeat within months. It would be very similar to Desert Storm. Advancing to and clearing fortified cities would of course prove a challenge even with NATO fully involved, and I fully expect that Russia would go all in on guerilla tactics in that case.
If Ukraine had already been part of NATO, Russia would never have attacked as that would have immediately triggered article 5 and there would be B-2 bombers circling the Kremlin.
Precisely
Oh it would have been worse than desert storm
A mutiny force almost took Moscow just a while ago. NATO would be making jokes about reuniting Ukraine with Raspberry Ukraine, Grey Ukraine, Yellow Ukraine, and Green Ukraine just to let China worry about a NATO state on its borders to make its problems with the First Island Chain even worse
I guess Ukrainians can blame themselves for not being able to reach NATO's standards in time.
Those profiting off of corruption literally sold out the entire country.
Ukraine wasn't able to join NATO as Russia has been occupying Crimea and portions of Donbas since their first invasion in 2014.
Ever since Maiden (also in 2014), Ukraine has been actively cleaning up their government. You see articles fairly often of the ongoing anti-corruption activities in Ukraine. As proof of this, the BBC ran and article this year of Ukraine removing military officials who were taking bribes.
That's absolutely great for NATO members, but not for allies which I outlined above. Being a reliable ally is paramount to maintain soft power... given how Ukraine is turning out, if I were say the Philippines, I'd be really concerned about the US support in a potential conflict with China.
... Of course NATO only truly protects members. That is part of their charter. Anyone can Google that in 5 minutes. Support for Ukraine happens because EU and US are concerned about Russian aggression and expansion towards the West. Had they invaded say Mongolia or one of the Stans then I'd be very surprised if NATO / the EU provided anything but humanitarian support. The sanctions would probably happen still though.
If you don't know what soft power is, you could give yourself a favour and try googling it. No matter how you spin it, a lot of countries attempting to resist China (and Russia or Iran) will start wondering after this absolute struggle of a support.
Thing is Ukraine doesn't have a defense pact with the US. The US is doing this out of (insert any number of reasons ranging from stability in the region, strengthening ties, propping up military manufacturers etc).
The Philippines have had a defense pact with the US since 1951 and basically means if things can't be resolved diplomatically the US will commit not just arms but fighting forces to the joint defense of the nation.
To quote Wikipedia - 'In a 2022 meeting, US Vice-President Kamala Harris reportedly assured Philippine president Bongbong Marcos that "an armed attack on the Philippines armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke US Mutual Defense commitments."'
That is how a defensive alliance works, yes
Wtf are you talking about? Putin said Kyiv would fall in 48 hours or something like that. Instead his country is hemorrhaging money and fighting-aged men, Russia controls only slightly more territory than it did before the invasion.
And that's with neither NATO nor the US in a hot war with Russia. If we were, circumstances would be very different and the only thing flying in Russian airspace would be snow.
Source? This seems like one of those lies told often enough it becomes true.
Not 2 days, but Putin did claim 2 weeks: Putin Boasts of Being Able to Take Kiev in 2 Weeks
I did search and found multiple sources saying two days. I don't speak Russian so I have to take the journalists' word for it. He says now if the west stopped backing Ukraine, it would be over in a week.
After which we all know he will move on to Poland and the rest of Europe.
Yes, because he has also literally said they would knock over Poland. And by they, Russian elites not necessarily putin. His essay was telling however.
You mean that even them just providing aid will be enough for you to stalemate a self proclaimed superpower and then push back against them and launch direct attacks against them?
I agree, this war is a big signpost for smaller nations who share borders with large neighbors known for considering themselves superpowers while also boo-hooing themselves as le-opressed global south for internet privs to stan for because Lebensraum and Irredentism are cool when something something colonialism.
When Ethiopia invades Eritrea or Eastern Somalia, these types will flock to defend them against any accusation of wrongdoing because "but self governance and sovereignty over your own ports is colonialism!"