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this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2023
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Showerthoughts
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A "Showerthought" is a simple term used to describe the thoughts that pop into your head while you're doing everyday things like taking a shower, driving, or just daydreaming. The best ones are thoughts that many people can relate to and they find something funny or interesting in regular stuff.
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Well, political forecasting is like reading tea leaves even for professionals and even when it's just for the next year.
So it's safe to say, nobody knows what's going to happen.
But generally speaking, political tensions like the one currently in the US need some form of release. They build and build until something lets all of this vent.
Historically, these vents have been (civil) wars on their soil, revolts or catastrophies that require the country to be literally rebuilt.
The US hasn't really had any of these for a very long term. Wars in foreign countries can reduce the temperature a bit, but only until the public's attention span hasn't passed.
The US system is also built for polarization, so let's see what happens.
If they are lucky, some kind of worker's uprising could be enough. If they are unlucky, they are going to have a dictatorship next year.
But nobody knows what's going to happen.