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Ever look at a weather report? Predicting the future according to a model whose inputs are measurements of things we can't directly perceive is something we do all the time.
You can predict things when you
Now who is keeping current performance data for every single battery batch? For every single battery model ever produced?
You're seriously gonna argue that having a complete history of a battery's usage and data from phones of the same model doesn't tell you anything more than a user's gut feeling about how well the battery is performing?
Oh it will show the actual capacity. But who knows when will it fail (i.e. start degrading a lot faster)?