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Taiwan ruling party’s Lai wins presidential election
(www.msn.com)
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this post was submitted on 13 Jan 2024
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There are going to be fun times in Asia as China is not going to be happy with this.
But congrats Taiwan! This is a great outcome on the path to independence.
It's been 5 years since I lived in Taiwan, but I don't think that's the current path.
Surveys consistently show majority support for maintaining the status quo, vs either independence or reunification. Which makes sense - the status quo is independence, but Taiwanese people can still work on the mainland and no one's invading.
Not declaring independence is safest for Taiwan and probably the world, and even pro-independence people I spoke to were usually aware of that.
Status quo is the only non-horrifying option at the moment. A diplomatic path to independence is not currently in the cards.
China is a paper tiger. Their nukes are full of water. The latest reports show even more corruption in their MIC than Russia has going on.
Even if their military is a cesspool of corruption and incompetence that lacks the real-world capacity to invade a wet paper sack (something that I wouldn't take for granted even if the rumors and reports about it are true, given the sheer volume of men and materiel China has to throw at an enemy nation regardless of quality), China at war with Taiwan would create a global economic crisis, between shipping disruptions in the Pacific and the knock-on effects of isolating China economically in retaliation.
Really, the best thing for everyone would be for Xi exit stage left somehow and be replaced by someone with less imperialistic ambition, but for the moment he seems fairly secure in power, which is why we've seen Western nations making efforts to decouple their economies from China, and more overtly signal their support for Taiwanese independence.
Either that, or focus on the oblast that includes Vladivostok. That oblast used to be called either Outer or Northern Manchuria. It still has a large Han population, and Russia only took it from them a little more than 100 years ago. This would also give China access to the Sea of Okhotsk, and another northern port.