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Texas’ Border Stunt Is Based on the Same Legal Theory Confederate States Used to Secede
(www.thedailybeast.com)
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this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2024
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"Stunt" is the right word. This is a stunt.
If this goes on for a week or even a month, maybe even a few months, ignoring him would probably be fine. The issue is if this continues indefinitely. If states can ignore orders from the executive branch and supreme court rulings as long as they want, from now all the way to election day for example, then they have achieved an effective secession.
We can't have 25 states all ignoring the federal government and, out of those 25, ten plus states sending members of their national guards to illegally block the US border patrol for the next 10 months and claim we having a functionally united country. At that point that block of states is for all intents and purposes is a separate country. I don't see why if they can get away with this indefinitely, which they have yet to do, why they wouldn't ignore the federal government on all issues.
People are saying they do something like this every year. I remember people talking about civil war and sedition for years now. I cannot on the top of my head remember an example where this kind of incident happened in my life time. I do remember studying the Little Rock Nine in school however.
People are saying it's an election year, of course they are doing this stunt. Are half the states in the US going to get to be their own country every two years then? Election years don't mean politicians get to do whatever they want as long as it's to help their party win an election. Biden doesn't have to act reflexively every time Abbott or some other Republican does something like this. But it's going to be pretty strange if 4th of July roles around this year and this is still going on.
OTOH, if Republicans manage to pass something like a nationwide abortion ban, I will be all for states defying the federal government and blocking federal agents from doing their jobs.
Yeah, but the Republicans are controlled by fascists. They will not hesitate to immediately federalize the national guards of blue states because they won't have to worry about elections in a christofascist dictatorship. What the Republicans are doing benefits them now in a liberal democracy. It won't benefit Democrats in an authoritarian dictatorship.
States not complying with a Republican federal government won't be an issue to the fascists, because they will almost certainly add a bounty hunter provision to laws that they can't expect blue states to uphold. Armed conservatives can try to arrest their neighbors they suspect of getting an abortion. The cruelty is the point. Not one person in a blue state might even get sent to prison over a nationwide abortion ban, but women suspected of getting an abortion may find themselves placed under citizen's arrest by bounty hunters with guns. edit: typo
Which is too bad, because I’d love “Texit” to happen
You really do not, here is why in no particular order:
Less likely, but far worse scenario could happen in addition to the above: Russia, Iran, North Korea, China, and other countries take advantage and attack parts of europe and possibly parts of the US. The US is a large part of NATO, so NATO will struggle to respond to the combined threat.
I understand wanting to see it happen, but much of what I said is very likely to play out if TX follows through.
You don’t need to believe me, but just think it through.
Gotta disagree with the last two bullets. I think it's pretty unlikely any active duty military switches sides. So you're left with the largest military arsenal on the planet and one of the largest standing armies vs the Texas rangers, which likely would just haul ass to the US. I mean why wouldn't they? They don't have infinite weapons and personnel on their side.
They'd have it over in an afternoon if there was an armed conflict at all.
I don’t think it’s right to stop a group of people, who vote for a thing in their limited area, from doing what they think is right. Brexit was a vote. They wanted it. They got it.
Who said anyone would get to vote?
What they do in their state is their business 🤷♂️ the majority put these people in power and they need to lie in that bed.
Of course, my deepest sympathies for those who are victims of circumstance. May their journey north be an easy one.
Except the majority didn't put those people in power when we're talking about Texas. Texas is not majority Republican. Most of the Democrats are concentrated in the urban areas - Dallas/FW, Houston, Austin, etc. Nevertheless, there's a nearly 50/50 split in population affiliation. However, the Republicans control the state through a combination of voter suppression and gerrymandering. And, of course, the independent wildcards.
Point is, it's not the majority who are keeping the state red. It's the majority of the people who are allowed to vote when calculated in such a way as to make Republican votes count more than Democratic votes. The state is rigged to keep Republican control regardless of the actual majority.
By majority I mean the voting majority which also includes the gerrymandering.
I know how unfair fair elections can be. I think we need a good example of how democracy can fail, and not many Americans can see past their own borders.
We are talking about Texas, not the entire former confederacy.
Ok goodbye.
Eh, fuck that. Let's let them try it and round up all the racists and criminals. Why should we all lose land over this? Plus, there are plenty sane people in Texas... They should inherit the land for putting up with all those fucking crazy people.
No no, if they leave, the civil war will be fought inside the borders of Texas. The sane vs the sanely-challenged. They can hash it out for a few decades while the north, no doubt, supplies both sides with weapons. I wonder what emojis we will use to signify what side we are on?
It wouldn't happen in the sense that they would never succeed, but it would be amusing to see them try.
Texas can’t even keep its own electric grid up because of their isolationist attitude. I’d honestly love to see how it would go if all the tax and federal aid were to suddenly dry up. That’s not even getting into having a passport to leave the state, tariff on imports, taxes on exports, then getting retaxed to come into the United States.
I wonder how firearms legislation would wind up.
Texas also most likely would be unable to produce its own ammunition and would have one fuck of a time establishing trade routes that would be forced to go through the Gulf of Mexico, an easy target with only one way out between two corridors. Given that the whole thing was over Mexico border enforcement, something tells me land trade wouldn’t be very reliable if it were feasible.
Texas has a lot of farmland, but do they even have enough to successfully feed their population on their own? And with enough diversity to keep the population satisfied? And they would be totally on their own because the U.S. would blockade them on every side except the Mexican border and there's no way in hell Mexico would make a deal with them.
Just wanted to throw something else into the discussion.
I’ll preface this that a) I’m no economist, and b) I’m Canadian.
Let’s harken back to circa 1996 when the Quebec separatists were once again threatening to leave. Also, they were going to keep the Canadian dollar as their currency.
I was having a chat with a coworker, who did have a minor in finance. He pointed out that if Quebec separated and kept the Cdn dollar, their fiscal policy would be dictated by Canada.
So reframing this for Texas: if they seceded, would they keep the USD? If not, how quickly would they be able to design their own currency and mint it? What exchange rate would they use for their citizens and how quickly could they get the new currency into the hands of everyone, including out in the boonies?
I’m completely glossing over any considerations around what might happen if they kept the USD.
Lets be honest if Gov. Abbot really tried to secede he'd likely find himself facing his very own "home grown" insurrection one way or another
Say what you want about the U.S., they have a lot of experience quietly funding local "freedom fighters" and I doubt this would be any different.
The whole thing would be a massive shitshow and would not get Abbott anything he wanted.
I also doubt that his corporate masters would allow him to tank the stock market like that, because that's what would happen. Something tells me ExxonMobil and AT&T (both headquartered in Texas) would allow it to happen. They'd put a bullet in the back of Abbott's head before he could sign the articles of secession if they had to.