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submitted 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is of the Te Pati Maori (Maori Party) cofounders, Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. They have 6 of the 123 seats in the New Zealand parliament.


Officially confirming that the Republican primaries were a gigantic waste of time for everybody involved, Trump has massively beat everybody else in Iowa, and will very obviously be the Republican candidate for 2024. Given the abysmal state of the US economy (for everybody who isn't in the top 1-10%, which is mainly what national statistics reflect when they aren't telling blatant falsehoods), it's more plausible than ever that Trump may indeed once again become President - though I personally refuse to predict one way or another due to how volatile politics and geopolitics currently are. Project 2025 is coming, folks - either as the official Republican governance program, or as what the Democrats will do in 2026 after the midterms, stating that they have no other choice and have to reach across the aisle as they are the Adults In The Room™.

In other news...

Late last year, New Zealand voted in a new and very right-wing government, composed of the center-right National Party, the libertarian ACT Party (ACT stands for the "Association of Consumers and Taxpayers", good lord), and the fascist New Zealand First party. By what I can tell, this was the well-trodden path of "Vaguely center-left party does neoliberal austerity and causes a recession and workers fucking hated it and voted in a different party out of desperation," though the flooding and cyclones did add challenges to Chris Hipkins' short reign after Jacinda Ardern resigned.

It's worth noting that Hipkins was at least fairly China-friendly, meeting up with Xi Jinping on a five-day visit in the summer. They still do the whole "We have concerns about human rights" thing, but of all the countries of the imperial core, New Zealand is - or, perhaps, was - one of the most amicable. In 2021, China was New Zealand's single largest trading partner, with a third of exports going to China (more than Australia, the US, Japan, and South Korea combined), and they receive 22% of their imports from China too, more than any other single country.

Christopher Luxon, the new Prime Minister and sentient thumb, has said that he is exploring a closer relationship with AUKUS:

Luxon said New Zealand was interested in becoming involved in AUKUS Pillar 2: a commitment between the three partners to develop and share advanced military capabilities, including artificial intelligence, electronic warfare and hypersonics.

“We’ll work our way through that over the course of next year as we understand it more and think about what the opportunities may be for us,” Luxon said. “AUKUS is a very important element in ensuring we’ve got stability and peace in the region.”

This is not to say that Hipkins wanted nothing to do with AUKUS or Western organizations aimed generally against China - in fact, pre election, "he was open to conversations about joining Pillar II of AUKUS". But the current government is pushing down on the accelerator pedal.

The left-wing Maori party, Te Pati Maori, has stated that they want New Zealand to remain non-aligned, as joining AUKUS would erode the sovereignty of the country:

As Maori we cannot allow our sovereignty to be determined by others, whether they are in Canberra or Washington. Aotearoa should not act as Pacific spy base in the wars of imperial powers. Joining AUKUS will severely undermine our country’s sovereignty, constitution, and ability to remain nuclear free. There is too much at stake for our government to make a commitment of this magnitude without a democratic process.

In general, the party leaders of Te Pati Maori want New Zealand to be the "Switzerland of the Pacific", which is perhaps not the greatest analogy given all the problems Switzerland had and has, but we understand the intended meaning of desiring neutrality.


The Country of the Week is New Zealand! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] MolotovHalfEmpty@hexbear.net 16 points 10 months ago
  1. The first and second requested measures concern Israel’s ongoing military operations in Gaza. They would not merely require Israel to cease all alleged acts of genocide under Article II and III of the Convention but would require the suspension of all military operations in Gaza, regardless of whether Hamas, an organization not party to these proceedings, continues to attack Israel or continues to hold Israeli hostages. In this respect, Israel would be required to unilaterally cease hostilities, a prospect I consider unrealistic. These two requested measures appear overly broad and are not clearly linked with the rights asserted by South Africa.

Basically that the requirements of these measures - that the ICJ did pass, including stopping the killing of Palestians and not preventing aid or humanitarian relief, and both of which Israel and others immeadiately broke - are too broad and would force Israel to stop conducting its 'war'. And that since South Africa aren't a party in the war, they can't demand that. And since Hamas isn't a state, they can't be held to that legal standard of ceasing hostilities.

There's a couple of problems and some real circular logic here.

Most obvious is that she doesn't think Israel would ever cease hostilities, so therefore it's pointless introducing a measure telling them too. Perhaps it's just me but this is some real Twitter-reply-brained stuff. Since when does the fact that a subject would ignore the law mean it's pointless to apply it? Remember, her arguement is that this opinion and case is purely about the legal matter relating to the Genocide Convention, not too any kind of political or diplomatic considerations, as that's one of the reasons she doesn't think it should be before the ICJ at all. So how is, we could tell them, but they'd ignore us anyway not a political consideration rather than a legal one?

Then there's the issue of South Africa not being a party in the war and Hamas / Palestine (even she doesn't seem to differentiate here) not being party to the case. But what's the solution to this issue? Does South Africa have to enter the war, officially fighting on the side of Hamas to bring the case? Because if not the only inference can be that it must be the Palestinian 'state' that brings the case.

But there's a problem there too. Even setting aside the fact that it's not a state in the traditional sense (although the UN has broadly recognised it as an 'observer state' for legal purposes in the past and the 'Vienna Formula' has been used in the past as detailed in this article to bring cases before the ICJ). If Hamas does not represent and is a totally seperate and distinct entity from Palestine, as she argues for why Israel's operation is legitimate and not genocide, and therefore can't be held to cease hostilities, then how could Palestine ever launch a case under the Genocide Convention even if the ICJ allowed it to?

The answer in her view seems to be that it can't. That even if it was a traditional nation state argueing they were facing genocide, any defense or hostilities by a non-state actor would essentially invalidate the right to measures under the Genocide Convention.

Israel says they're terrorists, so their actions are legal. Because there are terrorists in the conflict, measures can't be implemented. Once again, a long way to say 'get this off my desk' I will say that she does at least, theoretically, conceed that some of Isreal's actions could be in violation of international law. But those don't neccissarily rise to meeting the Genocide Convention, so get it off her desk.

On measure three, "Take all measures within its power to prevent and punish the direct and public incitement to commit genocide in relation to members of the Palestinian group in the Gaza Strip":

  1. Although the Applicant requests this measure to apply to both Parties, it is not clear how South Africa, which is not a party to the conflict in Gaza, would contribute to preserving the rights of Palestinians in Gaza, much less “prevent genocide”.

By doing this! By using such a judgement to support escorting humanitarian aid into Gaza? By using such a judgement as the basis for an international blockade of Israel? More bizarre logic hung on a circular technicality.

In reality this measure would apply only to Israel. That said, to require Israel to “take all reasonable measures within their powers to prevent genocide” in Gaza would simply be to repeat the obligation already incumbent upon Israel and any other State party under the Genocide Convention. This measure appears to be redundant.

So because measure three would only repeat the law as it is, she won't agree to it, instead refusing to sign off on a measure that states Israel should follow the law. This one is just jesse-wtf

Apparently ditto for the fourth measure, because she doesn't see any genocidal intent:

The fourth requested measure requires Israel to refrain from specific actions that South Africa considers to be linked with its obligation to desist from committing any of the acts referred to in Article II, paragraphs (a) to (d) of the Convention. In my view, this measure, like the first and second, in effect requires Israel to unilaterally stop hostilities with Hamas, which is the only way of guaranteeing that none of the acts stipulated take place. However, as previously stated, this measure, when removed from the requirement of a genocidal intent, merely amounts to a requirement for Israel to abide by IHL, rather than by its obligations under the Genocide Convention.

And the fifth because it's already covered by international humanitarian law:

Similarly, the Fifth measure, which requires Israel to refrain from deliberately inflicting on Palestinians in Gaza conditions of life calculated to bring about their destruction in whole or in part, outside the context of the requirement of a genocidal intent, is tantamount to requiring Israel to comply with its obligations under IHL, rather than under the Genocide Convention. Thus, while the expulsion and forced displacement of Palestinians in Gaza from their homes could amount to violations of IHL, the Court has previously determined in the Bosnia Genocide case that such conduct does not, as such, constitute genocide.

And again for the sub-measures:

  1. Similarly, the deprivation of necessary humanitarian supplies would only constitute genocide if taken with the requisite special intent. As discussed above, I do not consider that such special intent exists in this case. Therefore, such a measure is not warranted.

With a note about one of them being too vauge:

The third component of the fifth measure refers to “the destruction of Palestinian life in Gaza”. This requested measure is extremely vague and would appear to essentially fall within the requirement for Israel to refrain from deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about the physical destruction of the Palestinian population of Gaza. It is therefore unclear what would be accomplished by separately indicating this measure.

And so it goes on...

  1. The sixth measure is written in such a way that it simply repeats the prohibitions mentioned in the Fourth and Fifth measures and is therefore not linked to rights asserted by South Africa.

Until it gets to the seventh measure, regarding preserving any evidence of acts that could constitute evidence:

The seventh requested measure relates to the preservation of evidence. Although the Court found the existence of such a link with respect to a similar measure requested and indicated in Gambia v. Myanmar (Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (The Gambia v. Myanmar), Provisional Measures, Order of 23 January 2020, I.C.J. Reports 2020, p. 24, para. 61), in the present case there is no evidentiary basis for concluding that Israel is engaged in the deliberate destruction of evidence relating to genocide.

So this one is specfic, is important, and does have supportive legal cases in the past, and would apply. Except that again Israel says it isn't doing genocide and dropped some leaflets so it doesn't.

Moreover, to the extent the requested measure concerns the requirement that Israel allow fact-finding missions and other bodies access to Gaza, it would appear to go beyond Israel’s obligations under the Genocide Convention. As part of its duties to the Court and to South Africa, Israel may only be required to preserve evidence under its control. However, a requirement to allow access to Gaza by third parties does not appear linked with South Africa’s asserted rights.

But more than that, South Africa and the court does have the right t ask Israel to not destroy evidence against itself, but doesn't actually have to allow any kind of third party to be in a position to verify that. So you know, just promise yeah?

On the remaining measures:

As previously observed, this case is complicated by the fact that in the context of an ongoing war with Hamas, which is not a party to these proceedings, it would be unrealistic to put limitations upon one of the belligerent parties but not the other. Israel would justifiably assert its right to defend itself from Hamas, which would most probably “aggravate the situation in Gaza”. ... I am of the view that the provisional measures requested by South Africa do not appear to have a link with South Africa’s asserted rights"

Same as it ever was. South Africa isn't part of the war so can't ask for these. Israel's right defend itself will make things worse, but shrug-outta-hecks

[-] MolotovHalfEmpty@hexbear.net 21 points 10 months ago
  1. In conclusion, I am not convinced that the rights asserted by South Africa are plausible under the Genocide Convention, in so far as the acts complained of by the Applicant do not appear to fall within the scope of that Convention. While those acts may amount to grave violations of IHL, they are prima facie, not accompanied by the necessary genocidal intent. I also am of the view that the provisional measures requested by South Africa and not linked to the asserted rights.

Because Israel didn't come her today with a signed letter stating that they do in fact unequivocally intend to commit genocide I cannot rule on whether they might be likely to commit genocide.

She then goes on to recap in short the previously presented rationales for why the measures aren't warrented, which I'll only post the title because...

V. THE PROVISIONAL MEASURES INDICATED BY THE COURT ARE NOT WARRANTED

...buried in this section is the personal, not legal, opinion that of course needs to be on the record so that, oh say... pro-Israel media could use it to spin the results of a case they and she knew they'd lose perhaps?

  1. Lastly, a word about the Israeli hostages that remain in the custody of their captors and their families. I join the majority in expressing the Court’s grave concern about the fate of the hostages (including children, babies, women, the elderly and sometimes entire families) still held in custody by Hamas and other armed groups following the attack on Israel of 7 October 2023, and in calling for their “immediate and unconditional release” (See Order, paragraph 85).

Is Israel one of those unnamed "armed groups" or do innocent Palestinians, in the high thousands and far more credibly reported to have been subject to the kind of mistreatment, torture, and rape she seems to just take as a given that Israeli hostages were, not count in as part of that grave concern? Because "custody" sure is an interesting (and weasely) use of a phrase their when previously Hamas only 'kidnapped' even adult military personnel. Sounds like someone is trying to cover their ass just a little, without tipping off the Israeli audience they're playing to.

In its Request for provisional measures, South Africa emphasised that both Parties to these proceedings have a duty to act in accordance with their obligations under the Genocide Convention in relation to the situation in Gaza, leaving one wondering what positive contribution the Applicant could make towards defusing the ongoing conflict there. During the oral proceedings in the present case, it was brought to the attention of the Court that South Africa, and in particular certain organs of government, have enjoyed and continue to enjoy a cordial relationship with the leadership of Hamas. If that is the case, then one would encourage South Africa as a party to these proceedings and to the Genocide Convention, to use whatever influence they might wield, to try and persuade Hamas to immediately and unconditionally release the remaining hostages, as a good will gesture

So South Africa can't meaningfully affect the situation and aren't really party to it, which is why she could disregard so many of the proposed measures. But she also just has to make the point that maybe South Africa is actually best mates with Hamas. (I wonder who brough that supposed relationship to the attention of the court in 'oral proceedings', meaning without supportive evidence? Who knows, it's just one of those things I guess). And therefore South Africa should get involved in politics and diplomacy (which is not her place our the court's to speak on remember) and tell their mates Hamas to just release the hostages and for nothing in return.

So if South Africa can't bring the case because it doesn't have any influence to the parties. But actually, maybe it does, and could just use it to achieve Israel's goals, because if it doesn't then it's responsible for the terrible crimes happening to the hostages too. Not in a legal sense or based on any evidence of course, just in her (not) political and (not ) diplomatic opinion.

I have no doubt that such a gesture of good will would go a very long way in defusing the current conflict in Gaza.

Then I'm sorry, but you're either full of shit or totally fucking brainded, and I'm going with the former.

VI. CONCLUSION 35. For all the above reasons, I do not believe that the provisional measures indicated by the Court in this Order are warranted and have accordingly voted against them. I reiterate that in my respectful opinion the dispute between the State of Israel and the people of Palestine is essentially and historically a political one, calling for a diplomatic or negotiated settlement, and for the implementation in good faith of all relevant Security Council resolutions by all parties concerned, with a view to finding a permanent solution whereby the Israeli and Palestinian peoples can peacefully coexist.

It's so complicated! I can't say what should happen (except where I just did). I just wish everyone could live in peace, but for now Israel... you crack on and don't forget to use my useful personal notes as spin to cover your asses while you do so.

debord-tired lukashenko-tired niko-yawn blob-sleep

So there we have it. Based upon her primary issuing all the way through being that her standards for genocidal intent are apparently thowing themselves on the courtroom floor and screaming "we're doing genocide, we're guilty, look at all these signed confessions" I don't see how she could ever rule for enforcing measures under the Genocide Convention realistically, even in other cases.

So the only real question I have left now is, why is she sitting on the court at all? soviet-hmm

[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 22 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)
[-] MolotovHalfEmpty@hexbear.net 16 points 10 months ago

I am. That's partly what prompted me to read the whole bloody thing instead of just the various vauge summaries I've read on the result as a whole. I wondered why.

[-] Commiejones@hexbear.net 10 points 10 months ago

Based Ugandan W.

[-] Commiejones@hexbear.net 10 points 10 months ago

So the only real question I have left now is, why is she sitting on the court at all?

She should be sitting in barbara-pit

[-] ziggurter@hexbear.net 12 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Palestine is a Schrödinger's state: both a state and not a state at the same time. Fortunately for liberals, this allows them to interpret things in the worst possible way every time. Is Israel "at war"? Palestine is essentially a state, so yes. Can Palestine have some kind of legal rights internationally? Palestine is not a state, so no. Does Israel have to listen to (Gazan) Palestinians in their political decisions? Gaza/Palestine is basically its own state, so no. Can Israel control the Rafah crossing with Egypt? Palestine is not a state and so it's Israel's border, so yes.

this post was submitted on 22 Jan 2024
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