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this post was submitted on 29 Jan 2024
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Hard to say. Real estate has been weird in China for years since it's one of the few investment vehicles available to the masses. A collapse domestically could even push those with the ability to do so to move more of their money into overseas real estate, which could have the opposite effect. Regardless, it's a bad sign for the Chinese economy generally, especially given that Evergrande is only the first of what's likely to be a wave of real estate industry bankruptcies.
Was just going to say this. This will just shift money away from Chinese RE, probably into RE in the West.
I think they have fairly strict monetary controls to prevent that.
I spent a decent amount of time in China before COVID and the amount of semi finished husks of buildings was alarming. They definitely over-built and the piper is finally getting paid it looks like.