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this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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"When you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die."
I am very sceptical of this. Lukashenko brokered a deal? He's a Putin puppet, why would Prigozhin cut a deal with him? What would that deal look like? Does Prigozhin become head of the MoD or Putins designated successor? He's right there outside Moscow, he has the leverage, why would he blink?
Putin called him a traitor, an enemy of the state, why would Putin back down from that point, he already looks weak, why look weaker via a U-turn? Prigozhin must know he's a dead man if he backs down, he knows the play book, why would he trust in the deal?
Was the whole thing a psy-op to give Putin an out? Was the voice recording that is the ultimate source of all this a Russian State propaganda play? Is it a play by Wagner to buy time to consolidate his forces before he moves on Moscow? But then, he has to be the one to move fast and hard...
Whatever is going on, we don't know. Next 5-24hrs will be key.
A common misconception.
Lukashenko has been around longer the Yeltsin. Putin, Medvedev, and Putin 2: Electric Boogaloo. I would bet money that he'll be around after Putin's demise as well - whenever that will be.
As much of an idiot lackey as he seems - he's always been to squeeze what he wants out of Russia while squeezing from the West as well. Visa relationships, for example - are a good metric for international diplomacy. Americans can travel visa-free through Minsk Airport for up to 30 days. Think about that. And also - he's managed to survive his own coup/revolution attempts. And yes, with Russia's support - but he's still done it.
The war put him in a precarious balancing act where has simultaneously play nice with Moscow without getting Belarusian troops actually involved in battle. It keeps him in power.
I'm not saying Luka is smart or cunning. But he's maintained power for 30+ years. He's experienced in it.
Nobody knows.
But I'm speculating Belarus offered him something very special. Maybe Moscow will oust Shoigu, and Belarusian 'diplomacy' will be seen as legitimate.
A distracted Moscow would be a premium opportunity for Belarusian activists and freedom fighters to organize another revolution. Last night, Lukashenko flew his family to Turkey. So... we can speculate as to how confident Luka was feeling.
The "out" would've been for Putin to recall troops to Moscow to 'deal with the Wagner problem'. It would've given him an out and he would've seemed competent to do so.
Afterwards, he can say "its clear need to fix problems in the Russian military before we can help our lost brothers in Ukraine" and call an indefinite ceasefire. Then funnel money into military development indefinitely, like a fascist does.
But that's not what's happening... Wagner might just go back to fighting in Ukraine later today.
The news is happening at lightning speed. Nobody knows what's going on. Absolutely wild times.
Fair points all in.
The long and the short will hang on wether Prigozhin has loyalists installed at the head of FSB, Ministery of Interior, and Ministery of Defence...
If not, It'll rank amongst the biggest blunders in Russian political history, and Prigozhin will be dead in short order.
If yes, Prigozhin basically is in control of the Russian Federation in all but name.
My money's on 'blunder'. However, I don't see Prigozhin being killed anytime soon. The criminal case against him was closed and he's moving to Belarus. He's incredibly popular - especially amongst Russian Ultranationalists, they'd risk martyring him.
Then again, moving to Belarus - he would be freer to criticize Russian Federation from a comfortable distance... and would be a thorn. TBD, I guess.
At what point, if ever, in Russian politics has self-canibalisation been a problem for them?
Putin has thrown down against Prigozhin, brought Alltwen arms of State to bare... and allowed him to walk away...?
If you think he's blundered I would caution about underestimating him, a brutal, ruthless bastard... for sure, but not a fool....
If he was a fool he wouldn't have got to the position he has at Wagner in the first place...!
My gut feeling is that this is a burn after reading moment.
If there’s anything following politics has taught me, is that fools can be highly effective with a little bit of luck.
And I agree with you. Fool or not, I wouldn’t underestimate the guy.
The out is just to blame all of the failures on Wagner. The Russian military is strong! It was Wagner that wasted all our equipment. They are the reason we lost.
The trouble is a significant number of people outside Moscow either stood down and let Wagner through or actively joined their convoy.
Makes me think this was a test to see who'd defect.
I've wondered that, but I think really that's more of an opportunity than a plan. Even then, it's a sketchy one, given how much support Wagner apparently has.
I think bacause the media always portrays Russia in a certain way, you expect now that Prigozhin is instantly dead, no trial, shot on sight, missiles onto his residence... this is not the reality. In the West, there is no mutual understanding and negotiation, somebody always has to "own" somebody else, down-to-the-knees-lick-my-boots type. This fails to project to Russia and other countries outside the G7-bubble. Imagine that maybe, maybe the Russian government can reason and think, if it is feasable to start an internal war along a first or instead just send through Lukashenko a promise to him to call back his army? Also Putin never called him directly a traitor, even if he is one, because that isn't the style of Russian officials to call people names (unlike Western & Ukrainian policians).
I swear you guys can only compare the world to Game of Thrones, Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter and map every villan so slavic politicians.
so how 'bout that trial
Good question, wasn't Russia appearing on an international summit right after blowing him up? Also it made the most sense to kill him after resolving a coup in no way another country would do, and throw that show of diplomacy away? And lose influcence in Africa with his death? You're like the high iq people who think Nemzov gets shot right in front of the Kreml is not made for Western audiences and media?
Also, blazero, how 'bout doing something else than creeping through my profile, like blazing some skunk or idk finding your Taiwan nation
Im sorry, it was too perfect. 'this would never happen' immediately happens
You're very familiar with that, huh?
And Russian media has a tendency to portray Russians as having a unique super power to innovate things no one else can. This hubris has resulted in many of Russia's failures.