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this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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A common misconception.
Lukashenko has been around longer the Yeltsin. Putin, Medvedev, and Putin 2: Electric Boogaloo. I would bet money that he'll be around after Putin's demise as well - whenever that will be.
As much of an idiot lackey as he seems - he's always been to squeeze what he wants out of Russia while squeezing from the West as well. Visa relationships, for example - are a good metric for international diplomacy. Americans can travel visa-free through Minsk Airport for up to 30 days. Think about that. And also - he's managed to survive his own coup/revolution attempts. And yes, with Russia's support - but he's still done it.
The war put him in a precarious balancing act where has simultaneously play nice with Moscow without getting Belarusian troops actually involved in battle. It keeps him in power.
I'm not saying Luka is smart or cunning. But he's maintained power for 30+ years. He's experienced in it.
Nobody knows.
But I'm speculating Belarus offered him something very special. Maybe Moscow will oust Shoigu, and Belarusian 'diplomacy' will be seen as legitimate.
A distracted Moscow would be a premium opportunity for Belarusian activists and freedom fighters to organize another revolution. Last night, Lukashenko flew his family to Turkey. So... we can speculate as to how confident Luka was feeling.
The "out" would've been for Putin to recall troops to Moscow to 'deal with the Wagner problem'. It would've given him an out and he would've seemed competent to do so.
Afterwards, he can say "its clear need to fix problems in the Russian military before we can help our lost brothers in Ukraine" and call an indefinite ceasefire. Then funnel money into military development indefinitely, like a fascist does.
But that's not what's happening... Wagner might just go back to fighting in Ukraine later today.
The news is happening at lightning speed. Nobody knows what's going on. Absolutely wild times.
Fair points all in.
The long and the short will hang on wether Prigozhin has loyalists installed at the head of FSB, Ministery of Interior, and Ministery of Defence...
If not, It'll rank amongst the biggest blunders in Russian political history, and Prigozhin will be dead in short order.
If yes, Prigozhin basically is in control of the Russian Federation in all but name.
My money's on 'blunder'. However, I don't see Prigozhin being killed anytime soon. The criminal case against him was closed and he's moving to Belarus. He's incredibly popular - especially amongst Russian Ultranationalists, they'd risk martyring him.
Then again, moving to Belarus - he would be freer to criticize Russian Federation from a comfortable distance... and would be a thorn. TBD, I guess.
At what point, if ever, in Russian politics has self-canibalisation been a problem for them?
Putin has thrown down against Prigozhin, brought Alltwen arms of State to bare... and allowed him to walk away...?
If you think he's blundered I would caution about underestimating him, a brutal, ruthless bastard... for sure, but not a fool....
If he was a fool he wouldn't have got to the position he has at Wagner in the first place...!
My gut feeling is that this is a burn after reading moment.
If there’s anything following politics has taught me, is that fools can be highly effective with a little bit of luck.
And I agree with you. Fool or not, I wouldn’t underestimate the guy.
The out is just to blame all of the failures on Wagner. The Russian military is strong! It was Wagner that wasted all our equipment. They are the reason we lost.
The trouble is a significant number of people outside Moscow either stood down and let Wagner through or actively joined their convoy.
Makes me think this was a test to see who'd defect.
I've wondered that, but I think really that's more of an opportunity than a plan. Even then, it's a sketchy one, given how much support Wagner apparently has.