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this post was submitted on 27 Feb 2024
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politics
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Biden won because of the youth vote, millennials and gen z out numbered boomers and silent generation for the first time.
But this year he's only up 4 points in the 18-34 demo.
It's fucking insane seeing so many people insisting we can't talk about these issues while there's still time to fix it.
Biden just doesn't want to actually do things that would get him votes. Even something basic like doing interviews, it's like the 2024 Biden campaign is just going to be hiding him in a closet while the media talks about how bad trump would be and all of Bidens aides claim he's a completely different person off camera
I really don't think it will be enough this time. And it's fucking terrifying
Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don't follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.
This is why polling stated Obama wasn't going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.
Not sure where you're getting that. FiveThirtyEight's presidential model doesn't solely rely on polling, but it's the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/nate-silver-election-forecasts-right
That was an in person speech I attended by the unofficial god of polling, Angus Reid.
Don't know what you heard in a speech, but Angus Reid's own organization accurately predicted the popular vote that year:
https://angusreid.org/electoral-record-continued/
And his group was the outlier.
Anyways I was sharing firsthand knowledge here that isnt acknowledged on the web. That speech has no public recording.
No polling agency talks about why the uncertainty used to be +/-3% and its now often +/- 6 to 10%.
You're just looking for irrelevant gotchas.
It's not exactly a "gotcha" when we just have to take your word for it that this happened.
A: Makes a claim
B: Requests source.
A: You're just looking for irrelevant gotchas. Anyway, she lives in Canada.
I mean, you might be totally correct and relating a factual experience with total objectivity. But you gotta admit that's what it sounds like.
Got a source for that "everyone was expecting a Romney win" thing?
Yeah, an in person speech by Angus Reid.
Sources are usually verifiable.
Yeah, sorry. This wasn't a public speech, but I was there in person. There might be a recording of it, but again, not public.
Cool. So one guy at a speech delivered in private that you can't verify in any way said that everyone expected Romney to win.
No, he said why the polling was off and why most polls were projecting a Romney win.
Romney lost once the binders full of women comment happened. Similar to Hillary's deplorables comment.
Saying things like "Well, they're totally different off camera" sank both Dole and Clinton as well.
Pics or it didn't happen.
Add to that the lack of will to do debates...
Neither are doing primary debates, and there's no way a general debate happens.
We won't see either even attempt to answer a difficult question, and they'll both still fuck up the easy ones.
Biden I get, the sitting President doesn't have to debate.
In Trump's case, he has nothing to gain by it, so that also makes sense.
Once they lock down the candidacy though, there had better be debates.
It's tradition to do 3, last time they only did 2.
I'd be surprised if they do 1, especially if either of them answer a difficult question.
So much shit has been thrown out the window already.
The same youths who helped him win in 2020 will be needed this year. And I'm not 100% sure that a senile moderate is enticing enough to bring out the required votes, even if the other guy is a senile fascist-wannabe.
Don't worry. If young people don't like how Biden is supporting Netanyahu's genocide and moving to the right on immigration, we can just scream abuse at them until November!
Now I can already hear you asking "won't that alienate them and cause them to stay home?" Well, that sounds like something a Russian Chinese tankie Republican shill trumper child moron bot would say.
I dont think they understood your sarcasm
I know they did.
But not voting for him means fucking over lgbt, women, and minorities. Good work! You've made a great statement to the world about who you care about.
There you go. Just keep that up until november.
The game isn't to be the best person to fix America. The game is not fucking up.
They tell people what they think online and on tv, you don't need a debate. The only thing that can happen to old men like Trump and Biden on a debate stage is them fucking up.
A massive win on stage wouldnt change their base or sway people more than pundits hammering your point eloquently for you, but a fuck up would end them, so they don't go.
Keep in mind that it's still February. The election is in November. If he did all of that now, the energy it generates would be worn off by then. Hopefully the strategy is to gear up the campaign in summer.
You're right...
Got to remember Biden is 81 years old and isn't capable of campaigning for a long time...
Surely nothing bad will happen if he waits till the last minute. And it's not like being able to work for 7 months is a constitutional requirement to be president.
/S
Even with the /s, this is insane. Campaigning is all about marketing, and timing is critical in marketing. Christ.
His opponent is currently making appearances while juggling trial dates and is nearly as old. Covid was a good excuse to keep Biden hidden last election, but he's going to have to be much more visible this time.
Yes, everyone knows with a capable, young, intelligent, and capable candidate, the trick is to hide them to the last second as a surprise.
So then hiding Biden has nothing to do with his lack of ability.
This is totally normal!
That's why no one is bothering to talk about the election right now and political stump speeches and advertising doesn't start till Halloween.
Wasn't Biden on Seth myers literally last night?
The unannounced 5 minute part where two celebrities talked about how great he is while he sat there looking at stuff other than the person talking?
So you haven't watched it yet?
He talks about the great agenda he has for 2020, spends most of his time waiting on cues he goes early on, talks about being buddy buddy with the leader of China, and rambles on about how America is the greatest country in the world after saying it's not.
Didn't have any problems with stuttering, but it looked like a video you make with an elderly family member during the holidays to send to everyone that doesn't visit the nursing home.
I refuse to believe anyone watches that shit show and came away confident in Biden.
But yeah, before the post got taken down, I even commented on it how it's more than I thought we'd get, and also makes sense why his campaign team is hiding him.
not doing interviews? he told us he likes chocolate chip cookies. what more do you want?