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If Biden loses in November, don’t blame voters who are angry over Gaza | Arwa Mahdawi
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2024
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Trump did.
Again, what the ACTUAL fuck are you talking about? Trump was NEVER net negative in polling.
Trumps 2015 polling.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/datablog/2015/dec/09/donald-trump-polls-past-elections-republican-nomination
and guess what? When Trump slipped in the polling in 2020, he went on to lose the election.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/
Trump was polling ~8 points higher than Joe Biden is currently and went on to lose the election. Biden was polling 30 points higher than he is currently and barely squeaked it out.
Trump was never even close to being favourite in 2016.
I know hindsight is a wonderful thing but srsly.
You should post actual polls, not betting odds. I didn't say he was the favorite, but he sure as shit wasn't running on a 22 point deficit.
OK. Check out the sea of blue and then explain what the fuck you are on about.
I see a lot of polls calling it for Clinton, but well within the margin of error. Interestingly and perhaps ominously, one of the biggest criticisms of Clintons 2016 run was how she practically ignored Michigan and the rest of the rust belt. She did what everyone is currently doing now and tried to browbeat voters into voting for the Democrat you know, "because its her turn".
I'm grabbing the data for this set as well and will post a figure. I'd like to see it aligned to days out from the election to the current polling.
The polling separation between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, right now, is not even close to the margin of error. Trumps going up in the polls. Biden is going down. I'll see if I can align the two based on days out from the election.
Here is Hillary versus Trump, 2016 data:
Here is the 2024 (current polling) on top of the 2016 polling. I aligned them to days till the election. Important to keep in mind here that Trump was in a 10+ way race at the current time in polling in 2016. It was not clear what-so-ever that he would be the nominee. Biden and Trump (currently) should probably both be considered to be the de-facto nominees.
If Clinton was polling in the 30's as the de-facto nominee, what do you think her chance of winning in 2016 would have been?
This figure says it all. Insisting that we support Biden without question is handing Trump the election.