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China drops 'peaceful reunification' reference to Taiwan
(www.reuters.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2024
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I'm no Chinese war strategist but that's a full-war problem, presumably they have a plan for that and I don't see any reason why it would need to be a plan that takes months of visible effort to prep for.
China has to spread their planes around to secure their large border. Especially around India, Japan, and Korea. Vietnam is also looking more and more like a US ally (as strange as that sounds historically).
To invade Taiwan, they have to dedicate more planes to that region, and that's not something they can do secretly. It's not just moving the planes themselves, either. Fuel has to be supplied. So do spare parts. Those runway hangers are going to get filled. More mechanics have to be brought in and housed. Logistics is boring, but it's really, really important. This is all going to show up very clearly to anyone with spy satellites.
Even so, we had Russian forces gathering on the border with Ukraine as Zelensky himself said the US was being paranoid for saying they were going to invade. Some level of movement may be seen but dismissed as posturing. China regularly masses ships in the South China Sea and does war exercises.
And, they have years to plan. If they open a new air base close to Taiwan next year and fill it with planes and parts, they don't have to move them into place 5 years later when they actually use them against Taiwan.
Again, I don't know anything. But months of warning seems like a lot.
After Ukraine, I don't think Taiwan is going to make that same mistake.