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Missouri man fatally shoots his mother at home after mistaking her for intruder
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 10 Mar 2024
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I feel like you're minimizing the part where it's 0.03% by contrasting it with what you take as the given that individual gun violence is a likely threat in most of the country.
Gun violence can be a problem without it being a specific actionable concern for the majority of people.
It's why it's not contradictory to think we should work to reduce gun violence, and also not find it necessary to be armed in anticipation of imminent violence.
I don't. As I said, poverty & organized crime is a driving factor in both burglaries & gun violence moreso than any other metric and heavily skews those statistics between localities. Many regions will have rates 3-4x that. I also feel like you're minimizing the part where it's 1 in ~~3300~~ 1990 per year, which applied over even just 50 years comes to ~~1.6%~~ 2.5% of people experiencing it in their lives. Hell, the total burglary number of ~~600,000~~ 900,000 is nearly thrice the rate of house fires in the US.
It would absolutely be inconsistent to cite gun violence stats as a cause of concern for the average person (2) (3) while dismissing being assaulted in a burglary, nevermind being burgled at all, as an essentially zero chance.
As an interesting point of reference, UK home break-ins occur at a rate of 578,000 yearly for a population with just 27.8 million households. That works out to 2% of households yearly being burgled, and per the first source over half of those occur while someone is present in the house (twice as often as happens in the US). Here's another source citing a 1.27% rate of domestic burglary for the year ending in June 2023, and that's vs the US rate of 0.728% (1.7-2.7 times higher). I can't find any sources for what percentage of these break-in lead to assaults on the occupants, but for even the more conservative number of 1.27% from earlier and 50% of those being occupied homes, a rate higher than 6.90% of those occupied burglaries leading to assault would place the odds of being assaulted in your home in the UK higher than in America. This article working off of 2020 ONS data cites that of the 64.1% of incidents where someone is home 46% were aware and saw their burglars, and of those 48% reported being threatened and 27% reported force or violence being used against them. Plugging that into the most recent rate of 1.27% being burgled, that comes out to a 1 in 989 chance yearly of being a victim of violent crime by burglars in your own house, double that of the US.
I wonder what's different about American households that so dramatically shifts both the number of break-ins as well as how/when they occur. Poverty certainly plays a role, where the UK's poverty rate after housing expenses is twice that of the US (22% vs 11%). Doesn't explain the nature of the break-ins though.
Edit: See math from earlier post, actual number is 1 in 1,990 yearly, or a 2.5% chance of experiencing violent crime in a home invasion over 50 years. Also makes the rate of burglary nearly thrice the rate of house fires in the US. Updated the math throughout the UK paragraph to match.
I don't want to ruin your little gish gallop, but the act of "home invasion" is fundamentally different in the UK and the US.
You and your little pro-gun cult friends have ensured that criminals have easy, widespread access to handguns, turning "somebody stole my iPad" into "somebody stole my iPad and then shot me in the spine".
You've had over 20 years to prove your bullshit claims of "guns prevent crime" and not only are crimes not significantly prevented, you've created a massive excess of far more serious crimes.
Yes, I alluded to this by rhetorically asking why US burglars are half as willing to break in while an occupant is home. Still wondering why that would ever be.
Household burglaries ending in homicide make up 0.004% or 1 in 25,000 break-ins, and with national firearm injury rates being roughly double homicide rates that should mean roughly 1 in 8,333 break-ins leave the homeowner injured or killed to guns. That would math to 108 households in 2021 with occupants killed/injured by guns in 2021, or over 1 in a million yearly odds. Compared to the near-identical odds between the 2 countries of being assaulted or having other violent crime done against you if you see the burglars (27% vs 26%), it's a weird edge case to focus on while dismissing the entire collection of crime it's a minuscule subset of.
Also wild to see "you'll be shot while complying" in this argument, normally it's people saying anyone practicing self-defense thinks they're Rambo and that they'd be better off just ascribing best-intentions to the assailant and giving them what they want.
Again, the point of this isn't to say that concern about gun violence is wrong or nutty, it's to argue that concerns about violent home invasion are even less paranoid than that.
You are being extremely disingenuous when you say that since you're only counting household burglaries. And I'm sure you know it.
The truth is that 2021 was the deadliest year in U.S. history for guns, with 2023 close behind.
Let's look at some actual numbers.
In other words, the CDC doesn't track all gun deaths.
Meaning that even the gun deaths the CDC tracks are not a complete record of those types of deaths.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/26/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-u-s/
And you would have us believe that only 108 of those happened in someone's house?
Also from that study:
But hey, a lower gun death rate than El Salvador, so there's nothing to worry about.
I'm literally commenting on how the person above me claims American firearms ownership makes "the act of “home invasion” fundamentally different in the UK and the US." by "turning “somebody stole my iPad” into “somebody stole my iPad and then shot me in the spine”." Household burglaries is the context of the conversation.
No, I am claiming that ~108 incidents (could be 1 or more victims per) happen by a burglar's hands. You know that, you just said I'm being deceitful for limiting it to those parameters, and now you're lying about them.
Correct, and I haven't cited CDC data. As I've said many times now, I've cited Gun Violence Archive's numbers, whose sole mission is to catalog as high of numbers as they can. Their 2016 combined homicide & suicide stats exceed your source's numbers at 38k. I've also been using the higher number of ~60k deaths & injuries from someone else's gun per year instead of ~45k combined homicides & suicides.
Because in a discussion of someone's claim of "essentially zero" risk of harm from someone in a home invasion, the actual risk is currently very close to the widely-agreed-upon, internationally-lambasted, domestic-politics-dominating risk of harm from another's gun. Or hey, we'll count what you purposefully do to yourself as well and say it's 2/3 of the way there.
I really don't understand how saying "home invasion isn't a boogeyman, being harmed from it is as likely as gun violence" has been interpreted as "you're saying gun violence is a boogeyman" other than everyone here taking the top comment at face value and losing all basic literacy when the circlejerk stops.