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this post was submitted on 23 Mar 2024
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Hot damn. So I kind of understand why the Russians would dismiss this as a lie or a threat because yknow. War in Ukraine, Trump, etc, relations are bad to put it politely.
But can we talk about what kind of terrifying flex of power that is from US Intelligence? It's one thing to predict a terror attack on your own soil- sure your citizens quite rightfully won't like the privacy violations, but the national authorities are going to help you; so if your intelligence agency is worth the name it should stop most attacks.
But can you imagine having information access that's so damn good you can not only predict a terror attack in a nation that has an extremely vested interest in not letting you know what they're doing because they're running a war that you (and everyone else) don't like, but you feel completely confident TELLING THEM, which could risk your information sources if they're not properly hidden. This is like the Foreign Intelligence equivalent of being so far ahead of your opponent in a game that you start giving them sincere advice on how to play so that they don't get thrashed too badly.
It reminds me a bit of the US intelligence saying that Russia was going to invade Ukraine and attempt to make it all the way to Kiev while Russia was adamant that it would never happen.
The other thing to note is that all countries have an "obligation to report" which requires them to report evidence of terror attacks to any county that would be the victim, even if they are a hostile nation. As much as "US bad" is true, it's frankly refreshing to see us do the right thing so publicly, even if it was only as a way to make Putin look bad.
US intelligence called the day and the hour the invasion would start, as well as the route the first military group would take. I remember at the time people were speculating that Russia would call it off or change plans because their operation had been so thoroughly blown, while a lot of global media was just accusing the US of warmongering. Russia just plowed ahead with their invasion anyway.
It ended up being a good litmus test. The people who were being genuine admitted they were completely wrong, like Snowden. Others never said they were wrong in their doubts, and they're generally grifters.
Snowden just says whatever the Russian government tells him to say or he'll fall out of a window.
There's defense, and there's defenestration.
It wasn't just Russia who was saying that wasn't gonna happen, basically everyone outside the US thought it wouldn't happen cause it would be a really stupid thing to do. Then it turned out they did it and it was really stupid and I think a lot of people were surprised the US was telling the truth and it wasn't just fearmongering.
Are you kidding? Almost all terror attacks are one way or another sponsored by counties and governments who are all too happy to see another country suffer.
Strategically, from the US perspective, it was an enormously effective flex. It doesn't matter what Putin says to his people, or the world, but now he knows that the US knew, and could have said nothing. Charles de Gaulle once said, "No nation has friends, only interests."
Pretty sure Kissinger said that; the us does not have allies or enemies, only interests.
People says Kissenger paraphrased this with "America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests" - afaik there's no evidence of this but either way the quote's older than he is.
Seems often it's like this with simple quotes.
First thing I pulled up said it was de Gaulle. I rather suspect Kissinger got it from de Gaulle, who got it from Palmerston. My point is that I didn't make it up. And this thread demonstrates that it is a long standing sentiment.
Honestly its one of those sentiments thats probably been around for millenia. A similar pair of qoutes comes to mind.
"Speak sofly and carry a big stick" -Theodore Roosevelt
"Hope for peace prepare for war" -Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus
This is true, but sometimes strategic interests actually does line up with the morally correct thing to do.
I wish that was the rule and not the exception
It actually happens most of the time, but people peacefully coexisting with one another is boring and war is exciting. So we tend to only talk about the war. Lately it's gotten so people have been actively denying peace and cooperation even exist which is really bizarre.
Go outside touch grass yadda yadda, and consider traveling to any of the many many countries of the world that aren't in a war. You'll find that peace and cooperation is actually the norm, and the fucked up scenarios you see on the news are actually the exceptions.
America's relationship with Russia is complicated. But they're pretty motivated to see ISIS go down. Something like this is a big recruiting event.
was looking at a lemmygrad post on this attack earlier.
They're convinced that ISIS is a current CIA asset
Everything they don't like is caused by the CIA according to them. Apparently, the CIA has unlimited and omnipotent power... which is why it's weird that they're expecting a glorious revolution.
What’s lemmygrad
A Tankie Lemmy instance
I'd wager they knew it was legit but didn't care if, or even preferred, it happened. They're playing a table top game with real lives.
If they weren't currently engaged in a war in Ukraine, this might be the case. Could get the country to rally around Putin as he goes on a big military campaign in Chechnya/Syria/Africa/wherever to get revenge against ISIS.
But Russia currently doesn't have the military resources for this, so it just make Putin weak and incompetent for being unable to protect Russians from the terrorists.
Exactly. When I read it I assumed it was a false flag attack. I mean, Putin doesn't have the best track record when it comes to bombing his own people.
if they knew it was legit why didn't they just say nothing? it's weird Putin is on record saying it won't happen, right before it happened. makes him look stupid.
tbh though I'd be surprised if they genuinely had no idea, how can their intelligence be so much worse in their own country?
Their own assets are probably busy in Ukraine or trying to combat Ukrainian infiltrators
Moles. Moles EVERYWHERE.
Or listening devices everywhere...
This could escalate the situation a lot of Russia gets hell bent in blaming Ukraine or the US.
Even from an extremely cold perspective, there's little strategical benefit for the US on this, and it's a wild card.
Or they helped plan it.
Then told Putin the exact plan, knowing 100% that he wouldn't act on the information? God damn, we're fucking amazing.
Your president once gave Saddam Hussein the green light to invade Kuwait.
I had curry for dinner.
Sorry, are we just mentioning irrelevant shit?
someone is.