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this post was submitted on 20 Mar 2024
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They'll fight until they realise first hand that this isn't a war where you fight but more like one where you hide in a hole from artillery, missiles and drones. When they realise what it is their willingness to be there will collapse very quickly. That probability won't stop France trying.
Oh I agree, this will be a shit show regardless if French soldiers proper or their foreign legions are fighting.
I think the west is genuinely out matched by Russia. The power and economic difference is so great that (unless nukes are being used) ww3 is going to be a one-sided bloodbath.
If they throw nato troops into Russia, it won't change the trajectory of Ukraine. It'll just expedite western Europe's decline.
I don't think the west is looking to start ww3 yet they're looking to create situations that will justify extreme policy in order to reorganise society to resolve the problems they have. They need to rebuild a massive manufacturing base and for that a complete societal reorganisation is required to move labourers from services into manufacturing. This requires a significant political reason to pull off because otherwise it alone will collapse western societies due to unhappiness both from the left and the far right.
I personally think they're doing calculated incremental increases to reach the political conditions necessary to achieve that. They have to decouple or ww3 is as you say, a nuke war and end of the world. Only decoupling and rebuilding manufacturing can enable them to win a war without nukes.
All of this shit is just trying to turn the dial very slightly without the nukes flying.