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this post was submitted on 25 Mar 2024
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politics
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Has a chance? Sure.
"On track to win a historical landslide"? Not at all. Zero evidence for that.
That picture does not look promising or relevant.
Don't cast your assumptions on me to attack them; make up whatever throat-jumping stories you like, but leave me out of them.
The article doesn't claim that. It claims that a generic Republican would be on track to win a historical landslide. But not Trump because of his unfavorability.
I don't know which article you read, but:
"Donald Trump would be on track to win a historic landslide in November — if so many US voters didn’t find him personally repugnant."
That's exactly the case the article is making, and that case has no legs to stand on.
What? Did you read it? It shows generic R polling vs. Biden winning big but Trump v. Biden polling low. That indicates that the majority of Americans would be open to a Republican Presidency, just not a Trump presidency. They make the case with polling data.
Wow, hyperbolic polling "data" that is consistently inaccurate and being constantly manipulated and interfered with hypothesizing a fictional republican representative with zero adverse character traits?
Weird that people aren't giving that more weight...
Citation needed.
https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/
Did you read that article? Their first example of a polling "miss":
Pollsters were actually calling that race a toss up (also 538's page ). There were several polls that predicted a slim Oz and several that predicted a slim Fetterman. Even the Republican leading pollster that was predicting a 1% the wrong way has a confidence interval of +/- 2.5 and had 4.9% other/undecided factor in the poll.
People are angry that they can't read polls. They're angry that a toss up is just that.
Did you read it? It goes on to describe larger polling errors(14%) that resulted consistently in multiple elections going the opposite way of the polls.
Polls are consistently inaccurate.
You can read the whole article instead of the first sentence.
This is the chunk you're complaining about? They didn't even refute the poll they just don't like that data. And that's after consistently complaining about polls that were marked as toss-ups.
Like please respond to the first one. Because the polls got Oz vs. Fetterman largely correct and it's the first example of a miss which should be the strongest one.
No, it isn't, and i responded to your first reply four days ago when you originally replied.
If you are expecting every single pull to be inconsistent by the exact same amount, you're going to be disappointed.
Some polls are off by 1% some are off by 15% some are off by more.
They're not all from identical elections, and there's not always an identical number of people voting or people being polled.
Polls are consistently inaccurate,is the point here.
If a pill has a +- of 5-7 percent with 90% confidence. And you have ten polls, You would expect at least one to be off by more that 5-7%. What your describing is expected.
Right, polls are consistently inaccurate and should not be counted on as foundational predictors of political conclusions.
If I tell you that a rocket is going to land withing a 20ft circle 90% of the time and land 9 rockets in the circle and 1 out of it; was I accurate or inaccurate in your mind?
Consistently inaccurate.
At least 10 percent of the time the rocket will consistently land inaccurately.
Further, if we more accurately pair your analogy with political polls determining an accurate election result, the rocket will consistently land inaccurately the other 90% of the time as well.
So you're complaint is that people are telling you, "You have this percentage chance of this being reality" and then you're mad that they're unable to be more accurate? It's polling it's not fortune-telling.
Where are you getting that I'm mad?
I'm not complaining.
People are drawing illogical conclusions from false premises.
I'm reminding people that drawing conclusions from flawed premises leads to flawed conclusions.
My apologies I misread your tone.