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this post was submitted on 03 Apr 2024
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1.Interesting point, could you please link the polls? Also, how recent are they? From what I've personally gathered, the sentiment is quite divided, with the highest support among fleeing civilians and western Ukrainians and lowest among families of drafted men and people remaining on the country's east.
2.Lives of civilians are not threatened by peaceful Russian takeover. While there may be a concern about people serving or supporting Ukrainian armed forces throughout the war, one that needs to be directly discussed, the rest should be perfectly fine. Ukrainians inside Russia are treated no different from ethnic Russians, and the only kind of "cleansing" that is possible is likely assimilation.
3.Peace with Ukraine should absolutely have NATO involved one way or the other. Ukraine needs security guarantees, and obviously not from Russia. Luckily, as far as I'm aware, NATO is willing to directly back Ukraine up when peace is established, and ascension is on the table. Then, kicking Ukraine becomes nearly impossible.
I wouldn't call the opinion of people staying underground in Avdivka until the very day it fell more representative than those who fled to the west and want to return. Of course they will have more attritted morale, less capable of seeing how the thing can still be won.
And you have the mass graves to prove that I presume? I already mentioned Bucha, now let me also mention that Russia practically eradicated the male population of the occupied territories by throwing them in the meat grinder with WWI weapons. The "LPR forces" etc. were just another version of their penalty battalions.
Not a thing Russia is willing to agree to. Or I should rather say Putin: The existence of a democratic Ukraine, even as a rump state, is a threat to his regime security.
We're crossing very quickly into the level of speculation, which is not a good ground for discussion.
Still, if you need my opinions: Nothing stops Zelensky and NATO to call for joint peace talks with Russia; in fact, many NATO member countries suggested exactly that. It is then remained to be seen on what Russia answers, but the attempt should be there, and there's a high chance it will be answered in a positive way. Russia has no interest in keeping this war going, too, and has little perspective of breaking the stalemate in a short time.
The LPR/DPR forces are not civilians, and I'm talking about peaceful transition of some of the occupied territories into Russia, which is totally unrelated to what you say. Still, from the perspective of those forces, they were already fighting there with those weapons, but now they got actual military backing.
No war can truly be won, and if what it takes for Ukrainian victory is many more years of war and millions of lives, as well as unfathomable economic losses, is it worth it? That's not to mention that nothing indicates Ukraine is likely to win and restore its territory at all.
You mean Russia does a complete 180 all of a sudden, that is. If they want to, sure, they can give us a call but until they actually do it doesn't make sense to "call for peace talks": Has been done, Russia refused anything that would be acceptable to anyone else.
Indeed not. They're civilians forced at gun-point and point to the heads of their family to pick up arms and be counted as combatants. When Ukraine shoots them, they're not civilians. When they get forced into service, they are civilians.
What do you mean? According to Russia those territories already are Russia. Even parts that aren't occupied.
Yes. Because if you don't stop a bully in their tracks you embolden them and there's going to be a next victim.
The Brits have a word for people like you: Appeasers. It's not a nice word.
No 180 required. Russia is willing to come to peace, and will probably require succession of Donbass, which is something Zelensky is adamant about not doing despite being offered that way out.
For all I'm aware, LPR/DPR combatants are not forced into service at gunpoint. You know who is? Ukrainian soldiers (and some Russian ones, too).
I mean internationally recognized transition and end of the war.
Who's gonna be a next victim, if I may ask? Just about every neighbor of Russia to the West is already part of NATO (except Belarus, and, well, Ukraine), and most of those on the South and East have some form of guarantees of their own or ability to stand up for themselves and kick Russia's ass.
The aftermath of this conflict is that the countries at highest risk already defended and prepared themselves, so that Putin cannot call for another war.
Also, let's avoid turning it personal. Either keep it civil or end it. I offer you an option to leave the discussion if it triggers you.
Ah, yes, the "stop fighting and let me kick you" school of pacifism.
If nothing else, he's a politician. Politicians want to stay in power, not be disposed off by their people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_mobilization_in_the_Donetsk_People%27s_Republic_and_the_Luhansk_People%27s_Republic
If NATO drops Ukraine Putin will consider NATO weak, a paper tiger, and not hesitate attacking NATO land. Especially if the US loses the rest of the bit of sense they have and re-elect Trump. They of course won't get anywhere with that and it will be nigh impossible to keep the Poles from marching straight to Moscow, the mad bastards aren't afraid to get nuked over it, but that doesn't mean that he wouldn't try.
And no Georgia and the -stans aren't really up to defending themselves, not against a Russia which had a couple of years to lick their wounds.
Fair pick against "let us kick each other to death"
The will to stay in power population be damned is bloody dictatorship.
Thank you for info on LPR/DPR mobilization. Worth noting it happened in all participants of the conflict, however.
NATO is very much not a paper tigerz and the risk is just not worth taking.
That's not what I said, or what the situation on the ground is. If Zelensky were to trade away territory the people would get rid of him. Ukraine is a democracy, even if he wanted to he couldn't act against the overwhelming will of the people.
It's a massive difference whether you draft for offensive or defensive purposes. Also, whether or not you throw people at the enemy with or without training and even weapons. That's a thing that very much does not happen in Ukraine.
Objectively, yes. But what matters for Putin's decision is not objective reality but his subjective judgement. "Talk softly and carry a big stick" doesn't really work if you have someone who thinks that "talks softly" means "doesn't have it in them to use the stick". Russia overall seems to think that ruthlessness is something you have to train, develop, and they pride themselves in having done it -- in reality, it's the other way around.
Is an overwhelming will and war sentiment even there? Because I can't seem to notice signs of that.
My point around NATO is that since it's objectively not a "paper tiger", it will respond should Putin be mad enough to attack a NATO country. The escalation will be very quick, and the reaction very overwhelming for Russian forces. And, as politically mad as Putin is, he does understand a thing or two about politics and NATO.
You mean of the people in the street cheering for marching troops kind of thing? Ukraine isn't the country for that, they don't like war, but when needs be then needs be and the polls show that.
His understanding is of the cunning, not smart kind. If he was actually smart he wouldn't have started this whole shitshow in the first place. He would've long understood that his underlings are feeding him bad info out of a desire to look good and counter-steered, and not made various other fatal strategic blunders. Maybe there's a reason why he never ranked higher than Lieutenant in the KGB.
Could you please link the polls again?
He's smart enough not to attack a NATO country, and even if not, he'd quickly pay the full price for such actions.