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this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2024
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I mean, just throwing it out there, but I think you are trying to do a bit of fundementals on this. Which is like, fine, and on a sane planet is exactly how you should think about things.
However, we do not live on a sane planet, and when you look at stocks like TSLA, APPL, GME, I mean fuck, basically everything. You look at startup and VC valuations, like the whole fucking thing is so detached from fundamentals. I guess there are some classes of stock where fundamental analysis is how you should determine a valuation, but clearly, fundamentals have not been driving valuations for a very very long time. Its that "something else" that is driving price.
So that being said, does Truth Social have that something else? Truth social is a joke of a social media company. Its not the product or the service or its user base you would be gambling on for this one, its one asshole named DJT. I personally would put a negative value on its users/ userbase. From an advertiser perspective, they might actually cost me money by engaging with the platform That being said, consider if Donny Tinyhands wins in November, what do you think happens to Truth Socials price? Like it exists as a stock SPECIFICALLY to enrich Orange Mangosteen. It would go gang busters. Why? Because he's corrupt as fuck and the stock is a vehicle purely for self enrichment. You think he wont self deal? You think Republicans in the house or Senate would do anything more than wag a finger? Fuck some of them might just end up becoming hypemen for whatever boner-pills or kettle bell testosterone supplements and being schlepped on the platform. Fuck, if Biden doesn't start doing better, we'll probably find out Pelosi has gone long.
I would look at the stock as a somewhat real time indicator of Donald Trumps chances in the 2024 election. If people think he's going to win, they should buy the stock. If they think he's going to lose, they should sell/ short the stock. And it may even be backwards from that, because of Trumps cash position and his legal entanglements. The more volatile/ lower the price goes, the less he's able to use it as leverage to increase his cash position. He may end up relying on that to continue to fund his legal battles and presidential campaigns.
Tldr: fundementals smundementals.
I don't disagree. There is definitely some level of detachment from reality on many stocks. His is more detached than the rest but that doesn't mean the fundamentals predict its reality. I also don't doubt it would be a perfect vehicle for anyone to lobby his influence. But before/if he gets in, this baby is going to see the floor. Don't know if the Saudis or Russia would want to put up the billions to prop it up just hoping he gets in.
If you want a sane valuation of a stock, the only value is the dividend, unless you want to be on the board. All other value is the belief someone will pay you $1 more for the thing you have which has no other value than the above.