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this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2024
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Like, its easy to come up with reasons why things happen after the fact.
You seem to have some decently strong belief that you know whats going on. How much money were you able to make off of Facebooks moves throughout that period?
My guess is you probably didn't make a bet. Or maybe you did. I'd be actually very interested to hear if you did one way or another. If you bet line go up, you were making a gamble. If you bet line go down, you were making a gamble. If your thesis only predicts the past, what am I supposed to do with it?
And thats my broader point. The rules are made up and the points don't matter. Its all a game of perception. Are valuations forward facing or are they based on fundamentals? Are fundamentals even relevant in a market this detached or should we really be focusing on Jensen Huangs leather jacket?
Teslas market cap is 512 B. Toyotas market cap is 395 B. Toyota is doing 250 B in revenue and Tesla is doing 20 B in revenue:
If valuations are forward facing, then what are the valuing? If the game was made sense, a simple slide ruler is all you would need to win the game.
The stock market is just voting in the short term but it's weighing in the long term. Fundamentals work, but sometimes markets are irrational. This is not new. Things have always been this way.
If you don't like it, you need to invest in Treasury Bills.