Even 37% of active duty soldiers isn’t nothing. They’d be at a disadvantage, but it’s still possible they’d try. Also the guns per capita among civilian Trump supporters would be a factor. And police especially. They’re basically small militaries at this point anyway.

But I guess the biggest factor to whether a civil war would happen is the reaction of the state governments. Good chance Abbott would be pretty pissed and kind of feel threatened. And probably other Southern state governments.

We’re talking about assassination of a major political rival who is the lead figure of the Republican Party and has a rabid support base, they wouldn’t take that lying down.

Edit: those numbers are also from 2020. In general Biden is down and Trump is up from then, I wouldn’t be surprised if the same was true in the military. Plus a good chunk of neutral troops would probably have loyalty to their state.