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this post was submitted on 08 May 2024
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Literally when have sanctions ever worked? I imagine there might be some exception to the rule, but how in the fuck did this "expectation" come to develop? At this point, the belief in sanctions is more a religious dogma than actual strategy.
Also what deepening isolation are they talking about. The west is far more isolated than Russia at this point. Nearly 90% of humanity sides with Russia, and only 13% of the world population is with the west.
90 + 13 = 103%
You are correct, but! 87% = Nearly 90%
sanctions work in the sense that they immiserate a lot of people, which is their entire point. the people doing the sanctions need images of starving children to get off.
oh you mean the stated goals of sanctions? yeah nah. that's just some bullshit.
And by that they can sometimes stir discontent, which is exactly the point. There was no possibility for Ukraine to win from the start, that is delusional. But you can strain the economy enough to destabilize the situation. That is I think is what they thought they may be able to do.
TBF sanctions have worked really well against Cuba, Venezuela, DPRK just to name a few. Smaller and isolated economies which have not fully industrialized can artificially be set back decades via sanctions, and while those nations still exist, we can't pretend it hasn't been an immense struggle for them which is almost entirely due to the sanctions. The US thought their war strategies against the Taliban and ISIS would work against Russia and they thought their economic attacks would work the same - not realizing in both instances that Russia isn't a literal or figurative island with a fragile economy.
They also work well for countries that are clients states i.e apartheid South Africa