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32TB hard drives are incoming according to Toshiba
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this post was submitted on 14 May 2024
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Assuming the probability of failure is the same, you're right, running two drives doubles the risk of a drive failing.
However, if your single 32 TB drive fails, all data is gone and you have to rely on backup. If one of the 16 TB drives fails, you replace it and the RAID restores the data with much less hassle.
Both 16 TB drives failing at once is negligible (however, the RAID controller might).
Thank you for understanding.
If that is your whole point, you didn't approach it right as you can see with all the downvotes.
You seemingly argued against RAID which was invented for data availability and performance. While it's true, that RAID alone is no backup solution, having just a single drive is more hassle when it fails, so running multiple drives in a RAID allows for better handling despite the higher probability of having to swap a drive.
Another point you did not consider: larger drives have more sectors that can fail. While I have no data for this, a 32 TB drive is unlikely to have the same rate of failure as a 16 TB one - the larger drive will be more likely to fail (not as likely as one of two drives failing though).