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this post was submitted on 17 May 2024
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whole Kharkov front is crumbling under the action of a few DRG's. The numbers are also exxagerated, more sensible bloggers talk about 2 to 4k russian soldiers. It's becoming clear that the AFU can somewhat hold pre-prepared position in hot areas, but has no capability to redeploy reserves to new fronts.
The poor 47th fire brigade must be spending more times sitting on cars and trains than actually fighting
It looks like they're stretched incredibly thin at this point. I recall how Nebenzya quipped a little while back how soon the only thing anybody will be talking about is Ukraine's unconditional surrender. The Kharkov collapse might be what he was alluding to.
One may add a potential "Sumy direction" opening up on top of that and you have a situation where you cannot hold the line anywhere. The part that horrifies me the most is the fact that their draconian mobilization law comes into effect tomorrow, and we all remember which period of WW2 was the worst in terms of casualties for the German Nazis.
Yeah, now that Ukrainian forces have been thinned out, it's impossible to hold all of the front for them. They will likely start kidnapping more people, but I imagine we'll just start seeing mass surrenders since they have no interest in fighting. There are already a lot of reports of that happening now. As ideologically committed people are replaced with conscripts the combat potential is going to keep degrading.