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State Department official resigns after Biden administration says Israel not blocking Gaza aid
(www.middleeasteye.net)
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this post was submitted on 29 May 2024
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politics
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I've been saying this for months. Years even. If you want Trump to lose, its not going to be with Biden.
...again. Trump has already lost to Biden once in 2020. If anything Biden has a 100% track record of beating Trump in presidential elections. Trump has a 100% loss rate against Biden in Presidential elections.
Biden wasn't supporting a genocide of the Palestinian people in 2020.
Things are different for incumbents than they are for challengers, especially those without a recent track record.
In 2020, right now in terms of days till voting day, Biden had something like a 15 point lead on Trump.
Biden barely won going into election day with a massive lead.
Its 2024. Biden lags Trump by 3-6 points.
Its over. Biden loses. He can't make up that kind of polling deficit.
Trump is also a supporter of Israel. Trump (and GOP lawmakers) actively criticized Biden for stopping delivery of weapons to Israel. So Trump comes out looking no better than Biden on Gaza.
Biden was in the Executive Branch for VP for 8 years and was in the US Senate for 36 years. Trump has 4 years as an twice impeached President.
Thats funny, that's what people said in Hilary's favor, and then Trump won. So which is it?
You might consider that those were the same people who have been telling you to not worry about/ apologizing for Biden.
The world isn't a monolith. There were plenty of people, myself included, saying in 2016 that Trump had a far better shot than they were being led to believe.
No, they're the same people saying the polls conclude Trump is a shoe in that you are citing yourself.
Bro you don't know who I'm citing. I've been doing ground up analysis on polling data for years. Biden showed a 12 point polling deficit to Trump in 2020, and hasn't led (unweighted) in 15 months.
So...you're citing...yourself?
Didn't you yourself point out that polling data analysis lead to the incorrect conclusion in 2016?
Yeah bruh that's how shit works. Here is a link:
https://lemmy.world/post/15291274?scrollToComments=true
You put analysis out publicly and people can engage with it. Polling isn't "wrong" it just has biases. It over samples some populations and under-samples others. Polling is only one approach to modeling political outcomes, but its generally pretty consistent. Trump was and is clearly an exception. But because we have the 2020 data, we can correct for some of these issues, especially because its consistent.
The best data we have is that in a Biden / Trump head to head, Biden needs to be +12 on Trump to be secure and overcome the spread he has been shown to demonstrate between polling values and performance. And its pretty good data, its a years worth of scientifically conducted polls and an actual election. In-terms of data sources, it doesn't get much better than this.
Here it is in map form:
https://lemmy.world/post/15294268?scrollToComments=true
Another way to think of this map would be "how much so does a given candidate outperform local polling".
And this is the big takeaway. Biden was CRUSHING it in the polls prior to November 2020, and like, squeaked out a W.
Even if you cut the polling differential in half (and we don't have evidence for that), Biden is still failing dramatically.