https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/05/20/an-early-look-at-black-voters-views-on-biden-trump-and-election-2024/

Overall, older voters have tended to be more Republican than younger voters in recent decades, but this is not true for Black voters. While 7% of Black voters 50 and older currently identify as or lean Republican, 17% of Black voters under 50 are aligned with the Republican Party. This is not new, as younger Black voters have tended to be more Republican than older Black voters over the last 25 years.

No. It is not accurate to say his popularity with black voters is "surging".

https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/05/20/an-early-look-at-black-voters-views-on-biden-trump-and-election-2024/

I've seen some decent conversations over on Mastodon about how the democrats taking the black vote for granted is causing real damage. Not criticise or focus on you personally at all, but your response kinda backs up the point.

In a hard two party system, what else was going to happen?

Keep in mind that if you ask a random sample of people who they will vote for and ask a sample of people who they will vote for and throw out all the people who didn't bother to vote in either of 2020 or 2022 you get a different answer.

He's not getting punished for incitement for his speech on Jan 6, why would he get punished for this?

But, yes, if it led to violence it would be considered inciting violence which is technically a crime.

Hate speech in the United States

In a Supreme Court case on the issue, Matal v. Tam (2017), the justices unanimously reaffirmed that there is effectively no "hate speech" exception to the free speech rights protected by the First Amendment and that the U.S. government may not discriminate against speech on the basis of the speaker's viewpoint.

It's not a crime on its own in the US, but if it incites imminent lawless action that can be a crime.

Depends on what you mean. Is it hate speech from a court of public opinion standpoint? Probably. Is it from a legal one? The US doesn't have a hate speech law on the books just "Obscenity law" which allows things to be censored.

Canadian law has hate speech but it might not fit that either as to legally be chargable as hate speech it needs to fit the criteria. In this instance it could be argued use of an N slur is Denying, minimizing or celebrating past persecution or tragedies that happened to group members... but it would ALSO need be performative in a public space, intended and performed for a large group. If it's basically in the scope of him having a private conversation with individuals it isn't a chargeable offence to public order. If he was shouting it in the street sure but consequences wise it's analogous to someone shouting "The Duck army is coming!" over and over again outside your house 3am. It's a public nuisance ordinance. If you call the cops will come over and stop it only if someone complains and at worst they will escort you away and issue a fine but nobody is going to do hard time for heralding the Duck army's arrival or hate speech.

So like is it hate speech? Maybe. Is he a racist dick who deserves condemnation for being a hateful racist dick? Yes.

The N word on its own is simply vulgarity. I think hate speech relies on the content of the message.

For instance.

What's up my n****? - Not hate speech.

Spoiler contains an example of hate speech. It does not represent an actual view that I hold, and it's one of the worst things I've ever written, and should not be read by anyone.