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Its not a false premise whatsoever that Biden will not be the next president. Its the constant theme in all the data we have available to us on the matter.
First approval polls:
On this date of Trumps presidency, he was dick deep in covid and maybe the most uncertain period of time in recent history.
Even with all that, he had five points on Biden: 42.6 to 37.8. Trump remained a one term president.
Same date of George H.W. Bush's presidency, Bush had 3 points on Biden, at 40.
Jimmy Carter, another one term president. 40.7 on today's date in his presidency.
Literally every single one term President of the last 60 years was polling higher than Joe Biden is currently polling, at this exact point in their presidency.
Presidents that won a second term? ALL of them were beating Bidens currently approval by 10 points or better on this date of their presidency. And more importantly, their polling percentage over time was rising, as in, going up and to the right. Bidens polling isn't going up and to the right. Its going down. He's not gaining traction, he's losing it.
Now onto head to head polls:
Biden over-polls by about 4%, Trump under-polls by about 8% when compared to real election results:
How is Biden polling in a head to head? He's losing to Trump, and has been losing to Trump in head to head polling for over 400 days. Out of the last 50 polls, Biden has lost 47 of them in a head to head with Trump. Thats not accounting for differential sampling error. If you account for the typical pattern of sampling error we would associate with a Biden v Trump head to head, Biden has won precisely 0 polls against Trump in the last 400 days.
If the election were tomorrow, it wouldn't even be close. Trump would win in a blow out.
You need to pull your head out of the sand.