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Mexico votes in election certain to bring country’s first female president
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 02 Jun 2024
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She's probably alive because she's already cut a deal with the narcos. I believe over a dozen other candidates were gunned down, along with some family members. I doubt that her and her family managed to get out of all that from simple luck.
I've got this tiger-repelling rock to sell you.
She's a shadow puppet of the last president, and he didn't do anything to stop the narcos or the murders. Why would you think she's different?
You have deduced incorrectly that I have any thought about her whatsoever. I'm merely pointing out that your reasoning is flawed and therefore invalid.
Ok. How do you think it's flawed? The drug lords literally killed over a dozen other candidates, the current president was looking the other way on their business, and this woman worked with that president and is known to have similar views.
So where's the flaw, my guy?
She is still alive so she must've made a deal with the drugs cartel is a classic "Post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy. It is all speculation.
Well of course it's speculation. It doesn't make it untrue or very unlikely, though. It's just not a certainty. What is a certainty was that a dozen+ candidates were murdered, but there weren't any attempts of her or her family.
This means precisely nothing, as explained by the fallacy mentioned before.
But you called it 'probably' though, which is on the complete other end of the spectrum from 'very unlikely'... (aside from it being very unlikely to me, if all I have to go on is unrelated events, someone not being dead, and nothing else)
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What kind of comment is that!