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this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2024
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politics
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I'm gonna go with "no" judging by how things have been going in the past. I hope to be proven wrong, but I'm not holding my breath.
My prediction - Trump will die of old age, never having seen jail, living a 1% lifestyle.
I would be happy enough if he gets sentenced to prison but is suddenly "too ill" or, you know, his bone spurs or whatever, and gets house arrest. Whatever as long as he doesn't rally or run for president anymore
While that would be better than my prediction, it would remain as proof there is a different justice system for the rich and powerful, IMO.
Yes, my bare minimum "want" in general is Trump no longer a force on US politics. But achieving that goal still falls far, far short of justice for his actions.
Totally agree.
The circular paradox is that if he (they) weren't "rich" (from an access to capital standpoint), they wouldn't have been able to commit such felonies, which they can defend and absorb...because they're "rich".
ad infinitum
Regardless of the sentence, it'll get stalled till after the election. So prison might actually be worse, as it'll get his voters out and then if he wins there's no way he'll go to prison or have any other trials.
But this makes him a felon, making jail on future convictions more likely under sentencing guidelines.
So the most likely way he ends up in prison, is if he loses the election and then gets convicted on any other of his many charges. Since then he'll already be a felon at sentencing.
He should go to jail just off this, and Im just not holding my breath. And I wouldn't be surprised if SC shenanigans come into play at some point. Or if he just keeps the appeal wheel spinning till he drops dead.
I said this a week ago, and got obliterated for it. I'm glad this concept seems to be resonating with other Lemmings now that some time has passed.
I completely agree with your other analysis as well. If the goal is for Trump to get what he deserves from the long dick of the law then the only way that happens is if he loses this election.
The last thing anybody who gives a fuck about the future of democracy in this country should want is to turn that cocksucker into a martyr five months out from the only personal referendum on his ideology that we are going to get.
There is a very fine line on what gets up voted/down voted on here.
Most of my comments get a whole bunch of one or the other.
From what I've been able to tell, planning up to six months is fine, but anything more long-term than that gets down votes to oblivion.
There's some interesting psych stuff where stress (especially from resource scarcity) make people incapable of planning ahead for any significant amount of time. And I think that's coming into play a lot lately.
The prospect of a second trump term should be incredibly stressful for a rational American. The problem is that trump is far from the only serious problem facing America.
No, he's not, but resolving him is critical path to resolving the rest of them. In this case, I don't think it's unreasonable to focus in on November and the few months following it.
Who do you think would have an easier time stopping Trump?
A Dem candidate whose values align with Dem voters and is not named trump.
A Dem candidate who is more conservative than Dem voters on major issues and is not named trump
Because, to me, it seems like option 1 will be more likely to get Dem voters to vote for them...
I don't know if this post was intended to be a reply to me or not, since I wasn't talking about Biden at all, but I'll have a go at it:
I think you're right, and that a Dem candidate who actually quacked like a duck consistently would perform better, but party leadership, rightly or wrongly, seems to be banking on keeping their current voters and trying to entice disaffected GOP voters (read: women), particularly in purple states, to either stay home (I hate both of them i'm not going) or vote Dem in a "at least he's not like Bernie, but maybe I can have healthcare again" sense. I live in Missouri, and my neighborhood had conservative grandmas out canvasing for ballot initiatives on the abortion issue for the first time since moving here, so I'll allow that they might be on to something, even if I don't agree with the tactic.
EDIT: to clarify, they were trying to put a ballot initiative to add abortion as a right to the Missouri constitution
To clarify, you said
I agree, which is why I said when we focus on November, what's likely winning the most votes is a candidate that voters agree with.
Which kind of comes full circle to what I was talking about. If we're focusing on the best path to beating trump, Biden needs to start listening to voters.
And all indications show that's not going to happen.
Biden saying people need to compromise their morals and vote for him anyways because Trump is worse, would work a hell of a lot better if Biden was willing to compromise with voters too.
It's not even a good short term plan for Biden to act like he currently is. But it's the presented option and stress makes people only avoid short term negatives, it hampers their ability to plan and evaluate better options.
So our stressed out monkey brains take the presented option that's "lesser of two evils" and commits to it instead of taking a second to breathe and evaluate. Because of that, when people try to talk about options, some people reflexively assume that there's two choices, and everyone has to want one or the other. The amount of times I've been accused of being a trump supporter for saying Biden could do better is insane. And it's the result of the same high stress thinking that republican voters have been stuck in for decades.
And that's not a comment on anyone's intelligence. This is how millions of years of evolution has wired us, it's 100% natural and expected to fall.into that feedback loop. It's just being exploited so that whatever happens, the wealthy stay wealthy.
I feel like I mention this a lot, but a few years ago one of the conservative billionaires on WB's board openly said he was going to make CNN more like faux news. And I just can't help but think it's not just correlation, it's the ruling class's strategy working.
I love how soggy pieces of bread like yourself base your actions around what magats will do.