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Get a Grip, Democrats. You Can Still Win This | Washington Monthly
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this post was submitted on 15 Jul 2024
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politics
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I see polls are unreliable again. Until someone says Biden should step down, then you have polling on alternate candidates that is the word of God Almighty.
Selectively believing in data that proves your point and denying data that challenges is is republican level shit, and they wonder why people are fed up with mainstream Dems.
Arguments can be wrong in multiple ways
“The polls are not reliable, but even if they were, they don’t show what you say they show” is not two contradictory statements that invalidate one another
(There’s a whole separate issue that confounding factors make the polls bad metrics of the overall reality, but you can still look at relative difference within the same poll from week to week or candidate to candidate and it’s useful to a certain extent)
Pretty sure I have made both of those points multiple times in the last few days when talking about polling
Couple days ago, you demanded to know who would be an alternate for Biden, and announced that for any answer, you would post some of the polls you selectively find credible when they confirm your existing biases. Here's the alternates. Provide your garbage polls that aren't any good because polls are worthless.
Harris. Newsom. Franken. Buttigieg. Whitmer.
The chart is from this which was sent to me by one of your allies in an effort to prove that Biden was cooked.
There ya go. Polls are accurate as long as they say what you want.
Hey cool we're back around to the very first comment you sent and the reply I made
You can go back up there on your own, and imagine that I replied with what I said last time, and then you don't have to reply because you already said what you had to say in response. Victory! It is the end of the conversation.
Hey, you confirmed it to be true.
Well problem is most of the polls are general popular opinion votes, but US presidential election is not a straight popular vote. As such the general "who majority of the nation like" doesn't really matter. Secure states are secure, so you might as well not ask their opinion and leave them out of opinion poll. Focus even on voting district levels in states the use electors to elect the electors and so on.
Problem is such polls are really hard work.... Almost no one does those and instead tries to read tea leaves out of general opinion polls. Polls which simply don't have the granularity of data to make conclusions. You need to ask "what is mood in this swing district in this swing state". After you have first added up the secure states, well with some looking of "are our old estimates of what are secure states for blue or red correct". Not that opinion wise all states aren't purple, but as far as election system results go there absolutely is blue and red states.
As I understand even in USA maybe one of two whole nation granular polls are done, with the actual amount of data to actually conclude how the actual electoral votes split. Given as said, since in some cases it isn't "you have to go down to state by state". Nope "we have to go district by district since this state has weirdo way of electing electors or adding up the totals."
Polling is archaic. It no longer works. People lie to pollsters now. Even exit polls are getting it wrong.
See you next time a poll says something you like.
Not me, I've written off all political polls, for some years now.
Reminds me of a line from a song: "It's not in the paper, it's on the walls."
Ok.