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this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2024
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politics
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538 puts his chances above Trump's. The Keys to the White House puts Joe Biden as favored to win (at least, that's the expected prediction). I have yet to find a single poll that puts Biden below Trump by more than the margin of Error unless that poll shows 18 to 20-somethings largely voting for Trump, which suggests a sampling bias. Donald Trump already lost to Joe Biden, and since then he attempted an insurrection. Pair the previous fact with the data suggesting Trump didn't get the expected boost from the assassination attempt, and you reach the inevitable conclusion that America probably hates Trump.
Each individual datum I presented defies your conclusion, so I'm given to wonder why you have such confidence that it's not just unlikely but impossible not only for Biden to win but for a reasonable person to disagree? What outstanding evidence do you have that would allow you to reasonably reach this strongest of all conclusions?
Edit: for those of you having trouble reading, I'm criticizing this person claiming that everyone who disagrees is unreasonable.
A. That's a bald faced lie. 538 shows 50/50ish odds right now because it's heavily weighted to do so until after the conventions.
B. Polling in Pennsylvania, the only swing state Trump needs to win, is disastrous for Biden.
C. The bullet bump is hitting now. Polling is always delayed, the news stories breathlessly published the day after were nothing but click bait.
538 is not what it was. Nate Silver left and took the model with him. The current 538 model is new and untested. The old 538 model has Biden at 26%.
Good to know, thank you! My point about the other person's degrees of certainty remains; it's absolutely asinine to say that you know for sure and everyone who disagrees with you is unreasonable when the supporting data is that shaky.
None of these models take into account the issue that an 81-year old cannot campaign as effectively as a younger person. It’s very unlikely that Biden can turn the tide in his favour through a great debate performance or speech. The best Campaign he can run is by hiding such that voters do not see how old and fragile he is. That’s not our best bet for beating Trump.
What do you mean by that? That 18-20s don't largely vote R or that they are being disproportionately represented in the data?
Because for the former, Steve Bannon has been working to corrupt the "gaming" community completely. My YouTube algorithm associates gaming with right wing material so he's already succeeded in that department. Not that all 18-20s are gamers, but I believe more of them are than older generations.
I think young voters are on average less likely to vote for Trump, including that particular demographic. I believe that because younger generations are more likely (among other things) to be openly queer, and more politically engaged than people of that age used to be. I believe this because a lot of my friends online and offline are people just out of high school. Almost every young person I meet is about as or more progressive than me, with those who who are less progressive going no further than to the left of Joe Biden. Those exceptions who I've personally met can be counted on one hand, and those I interact with have given me no reason to believe that they're an exception.
If 18 to 20-somethings were tending right wards, people who are still in high school would be reporting their classmates being swept up in the pipeline as well, but we don't see that happening. For clarity, I live in a red county, on the boarder of a swing state, and in a small city surrounded by rural communities. Furthermore, I have a career where I interact with a lot of young people and hobbies that push me towards interacting with the groups you're talking about. If there was a successful strategic effort to push that demographic to the far right, I'd be in a very good position to notice first hand.
I'm 21, from a blue county in a reddish state, it seems mostly 50/50
It makes sense that some areas would be different from others, but that deviation is far wider than what I was expecting.
I'm glad to hear some first hand experience with that then! Thanks for sharing!
The Democratic donors say it’s over. No money, no campaign.
The question is if Biden can beat Trump, and I'm not considering direct plutocrat interference. Also, no one asked you.
Thought it was pertinent information.
And they have an amazing track record in predicting who can beat Trump.
Please re-read my reply.
^ I see. This guy's comments get to stay, but someone here wants to suppress or censor my opinion which was widely supported by the community. Makes sense....