My reasoning is that if you're winning you want to keep the situation stable. Russian strategy is very straight forward, they're grinding out the AFU and all the western equipment along with it. They know that they have higher industrial capacity and can keep this going longer. Meanwhile, the economic war is also playing out in Russian favor.

The very reason the west is trying to escalate is because they see that they're losing, and they're forced to try new things. However, escalation also brings the risk of unpredictability with it. The west doesn't know when and how Russia will respond to them, so they're kept guessing whether their latest round of escalations might backfire in some unexpected way.

The western media is whinging about Russia sending weapons to western adversaries, but I don't expect that they'd be able to sell a direct conflict with Russia this way. And that's really the only card the west has left to play at this point.

Part of the reason why the us wants to escalated the crisis so much is that it would be bad for Russia. Right now the war situation is manageable for Russia, but with escalation, it could get out of control. This is exactly why Russian leaders have been hesitant to escalate.