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this post was submitted on 26 Jul 2024
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I've been saying this since Friday.
I have reason to think Florida is in play.
I think all Hispanic Americans have to bring a translated "Projeto 2025" in front of the people in Florida. Some xenophobic Cubans in Miami want to pull up the ladder behind them. In the report, there is a focus on de-naturalization if they detect fraud (p. 144). Chances are they will twist it to prosecute people with certain skin colours in particular and MAGA doesn't care if you had left your country of birth 40 years ago or yesterday. It also mentions de-prioritize processing speed of even legitimate cases held by their friends and family (p.144).
Wild levels of hopium.
North Carolina maybe. Georgia and Pennsylvania again are going to be tough but reasonable to hope for.
But Florida? Ronda won with 60% of the vote 2 years ago. Winning counties that had been traditionally blue.
Florida continues to skew older and is accelerating in average age. Mass migration of retired Boomers continues to push the state harder conservative. They're on pace for 1/3rd of the adults to be older than 65 in a couple years. It was 1/4 not that long ago.
Number of registered Republicans has recovered since the pandemic. Is now nearly 1M above Democrats.
Oh dont get me wrong. Until I finish the work I have on my plate and can really dig into the data, its pure hopium.
I was only able to run some very preliminary stats, but in the aggregate, a move in votership of 3-5% might be plenty. It was less of a difference than that which put Obama in the white house.
But plenty doesn't matter; where plenty happens is what matters.
When Obama was running Dems were 38% of registered voters. Republicans were at 34%.
Florida has changed a lot since then. The first big wave of Boomer retirements hit in 2011. They've been piling into Florida for the past decade. Republicans now sit at 40% while Dems are at 32%.
Covid also boosted Republican moves to Florida for their lax laws and "freedom".
Send em all there
What’s your reasoning? Seems like this is never gonna happen.
I am still at work and wont get to this till the weekend, but I was running some aggregate statistics looking at '12, '16, and '20 at the precinct level.
I have the data pulled, but I need to aggregate it.
Effectively, I'm looking at demographic shifts and mapping them to outcomes. I have the data, I just need to do it.