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this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2024
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Tbh, I hope so. I think the chances of his winning decline with every cycle that is a loss. But, his ability to split a vote is retained to some extent. So:
if he runs as the GOP candidate again, he's more likely to lose. If the GOP is split about it, he's more likely to have a split vote due to another conservative candidate opting into the race on a third ticket (this may not happen, in which case, he's just less likely to win anyway due to previous losses, increased age, etc).
if he isn't the GOP candidate but still runs, he's extremely unlikely to win but could be a crazy vote split.
I think any sane person would not run again. Trump might, though.
Thing is, the RNC is cleptocratically his now and will be for a while. Other than that I'd hope for similar things as most people are commenting here. It will be bonkers either way until he stops breathing and then some.