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Meta Hires Project 2025 Co-Author
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this post was submitted on 29 Jul 2024
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I do trust people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is more than I trust people who aren't.
So yes, you think gamblers decide elections.
I think I asked you this last time you brought this up and you didn't reply. What were Biden's odds of winning in 2020 on these same websites at 3 months out?
Obviously gamblers don't decide elections but they do a pretty good job predicting election outcomes.
I don't think I'm the same guy you had that discussion with (or if I am, I have no memory of it). Anyway, Polymarket (which I trust more) appears to have no history for resolved markets (as far as I can tell) and PredictIt (which is currently more optimistic about Harris than Polymarket) only shows 9/20/20 at the earliest (at which time it was Biden 57, Trump 46, Harris 4). I'm not sure what you're getting at with this question.
Note: Yes, PredictIt didn't add up to 100%. In theory that means you could have made money off of it risk-free but in practice it has a lot of overhead which prevents it from being an efficient market.
Okay, so you think gamblers are good at predicting elections?
Why do you think this when you can't find data to back up their predictions? What kind of "prediction market" doesn't keep data on past predictions? Seems like an easy way to hide failure to me.
Well, this guy does keep track and the record looks pretty good. The average of several different prediction markets on 8/5/20 had odds of Biden 59.1 Trump 37.8.
Interesting. Good to see data enter the conversation finally. It looks like on average, betting markets are about as good as Nate silver.
They also appear to have issues with legality in the US, which limits their effectiveness as a market, and they tend to be very "vibes" based in the short term.
I think that's a good assessment of the current state of affairs.