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You are now in charge of Russia. What do you do?
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this post was submitted on 21 Aug 2024
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What are my goals? The same as Putin?
If yes: continue attrition fighting, but defensively. The goal is to stretch out ukraine losses past the point of western support. Keep offering varying "peace deals" that solidify the capture of oil and gas resources and access to the black sea. Claim the fighting will stop once the Russian territory is liberated (the captured oblasts). In the backroom arrange to let israel to start their middle east ground war, that will distract and drain support from Ukraine. Move the conscript soldiers to the Russian side of the north eastern border with Ukraine. Negotiate to get CIS volunteers as part of the defensive home guard.
If no: pull back troops to very defensive lines across rivers. Dig in. Don't try to take any territory. Negotiate for return of some territory in exchange for crimea and total access to black sea, settle for crimea and a promise not to join NATO for 20 years.
Focus on energy export pipelines to Europe and China, try to pivot industrial base to post solar future. China is the biggest long term competitor, find a niche that is critical to Chinese interests like oil (negiotate with kz to be sole supplier)
Goal is whatever you want, but keep in mind if you erode your base of support you'll likely be defenestrated.
In the second scenario, would you opt for less adversarial relations with the West? Would you try to maintain/rebuild the greatness of Russia?
Second scenario Is all about economic health. Can't pay my cronies if we don't have money! Russia's diplomatic past, and its current position, requires an antagonistic relationship. It could be built out so it's not necessary, but that would take a very long time, more than one generation. However, staged niceness could be negotiated for economic concessions or trade deals. The greatness of Russia would be an exercise in public relations, military victories are not necessary.
Someone knows their keys to power