this post was submitted on 12 Sep 2024
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IDK about this, I think this is quite unrealistic and almost mythical level thinking.
IMO drones work well in Ukraine because its a huge battlefield we haven't seen something like this since WW2. For some context the Ukraine war front is well over 1000km.
The current Korean DMZ is a "tiny" 250km. The Taiwan straight is also something like 300kmx180km or so.
This means that both sides have trouble providing consistent and effective air cover for their troops, despite the Russian natural advantage Ukrainian drones are still quite effective.
Turning to Taiwan this is the opposite, it would be a very concentrated battle and anti-drone systems should be more effective simply because its a smaller area.
China already achieved military superiority over the US and the conflict will be decided over naval superiority by destroying or even damaging the US carrier fleet. In fact I do like the theory sinking a US carrier would be far worse than 9/11 for the average population and internal US politics, although perhaps that would mean accepting a WW3.
I don't know how an attack on Taiwan by America would even work without dragging the whole region into the conflict. America's industrial "base" is several thousand miles away from the battlefield. They'd have to be operating from friendly neighboring countries to even have a chance of keeping up a fight, much less winning it.
Wonder what it'd mean for the US bases in SK/Japan. I feel like those are missile magnets in the event of a hot war.