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this post was submitted on 13 Sep 2024
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Harris' takeover has been an an absolute success, but anyone claiming they knew it'd work out this way is lying or delusional. Just because we hit the low percentage chance that it all worked out doesn't mean people were wrong for thinking it was most likely a bad idea because all available history and information basically assured that it was.
That said, anyone that got vitriolic about it (on either side, tbf) can get bent. This is all uncharted waters right now. Being a dick about it either way isn't helping anything. Let's not pretend to know that anything is certain.
Yeah let's maybe hold off on the victory laps until after the election. This thing is on a knife's edge still and we got a lot of work to do still to get her over the line.
Still a knife edge, but there’s more space on this knife edge.
Though that debate performance. …. She was always going to eviscerate him… but she did it with style….
I knew that Harris would be a better candidate than Biden.
You’d have to be proverbially blind to not have seen it.
Did I know it would be this wildly successful? Not so much. I knew it could be, and I knew Harris would be better than Biden.
I'm with you and all, but shouldn't we wait before considering it a victory?
Plenty of racists and sexists out there who won't say a word about Harris publicly but will vote for Trump the second they enter the booth no matter what.
I’m not declaring victory- I’m saying Biden had almost zero chance of beating trump.
If he had lost like four of any of ten states, he’d have lost I. 2020. He won the EC by a razor’s edge.
And that was with all the shit of his presidency fresh. He’s had four years to retcon things, to shore up his base. And Biden had 4 years to fuck around on messaging.
He was and is taking a beating there- and some of it is actually legitimate (Gaza for example.)
Harris… it’s going to be a tough fight, but it’s her campaign to lose. Which is a night-and-day difference.
No way to know if it "worked out" before all votes are counted (at the end it doesn't matter how large or small the margin is, just on whose side it is). But yeah, you didn't need to be a genius to know that she was the objectively better candidate.
No where in my comment did I say that’s not true.
But again: if you can’t see the difference- and couldn’t see the difference before Biden dropped out, then I can only assume you weren’t paying attention.
It wasn't even a sure thing that Harris would be the candidate to replace Biden.
I was going to bet a large amount of cash that Biden would lose. We hit rock bottom and all data proved Biden was at best at Jimmy Carter's level of performance with added baggage like age-related risk. I said then and say now that anyone would be better. Whether that was Harris or whether that was by an open convention -- which itself could've been exciting and similarly sucked away all attention from Trump -- either way.
At the end of the day all the data convinced not just me but countless Democratic representatives and eventually Biden's own campaign staff and advisors. Thank fuck he did the obviously right thing.
What I got wrong: I didn't believe Harris would work out this well, and in fact I was hoping for Whitmer among others if I'm honest... But I'm happily proven wrong.
I was also wrong about the VP pick. I wanted Kelly but Walz is the whole package.
This is what I don't get. Everyone here had the sentiment of "we will vote for anyone who is not Donald Trump". But then they balked at the suggestion that Biden should drop out and insisted that no one could replace him.
Now that Biden has been replaced.... they're saying Biden being replaced was a low percentage gamble. Something here doesn't add up.
No one is gonna admit they were wrong and mean to people when they are obviously the good guy and being good means never making mistakes.
Over inflated egos that think morality means perfection and leave no room for nuance. Simple. Fucked up American exceptionalism in the Democratic party as much as anywhere else.
That's actually just not true. It's pretty interesting, but the main reason incumbents have such a high chance of re-election is because exactly this happened with most incumbents that had a low chance already: They got cut out by the party. So there has always been natural cherry-picking that only the "good" incumbents went on to actually be the nominee again (and therefore had a disproportionally high rate of winning).
Although I originally also thought otherwise, when looking at all the data, this was the rational & correct choice.
While I appreciate data, nothing I see at a glance is very supportive of an incumbent potus dropping out being a good idea. I dont have much time to dig into it right now, but of the two incumbents they highlight in the article, both were VPs that assumed the office after an assassination, and in both elections, the incumbent party lost the white house. Neither are particularly similar to the situation in 2024, nor do they suggest that pulling the incumbent would be a good idea.
womp womp i knew it. something about having a cadaver up on stage just spoke to me…
Maybe you're some kind of genius... Maybe it was that whole polls showing both Biden and Trump being beaten by not just any other Democrat or republican, they were polling under THEORETICAL OPPONENTS. Each of them could have been beaten by the THOUGHT of a different candidate.
fr tho im dumb as shit i just knew how to read is all it was 😭
This monologue of yours doesn't mean they weren't.
Just say "I am not going to apologize and move on..."
Why should they apologize?
Because that's the theme of the post we are discussing...
The only reservation I had was that the democrats would pick a worse candidate. Because democrats always do that shit.
ARGH DON'T JINX IT
This is cope. It was obvious.
"Cope" lol. Take some time offline. You obviously need it.
It's so fucking gross seeing people act like this over something so serious. The same people would have been unbelievably indignant had they turned out to be wrong, like the absolute children that they are.