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Weak polar vortex gives hints of what to expect this winter
(ingallswx.com)
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this post was submitted on 16 Sep 2024
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I don’t disagree with its usefulness as a potential predictor once it is formed. I’ve seen the literature on its impact on NAO and the AO. This is particularly true following sudden stratospheric warming events and its correlation with cold air outbreaks in the NH. However claiming that it is “weak” is misleading since it hasn’t formed yet. And to my knowledge, the physical mechanism of the interaction between the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric jet has not been determined. We think it is related to wave reflection from planetary wave and gravity waves during a sudden stratospheric warming event. But if we don’t understand the mechanism, forecast or climate models are incapable of predicting them since that physics will not be included in the models. At this point, using the jet stream in the stratosphere (the unformed vortex) as a predictor for the NH winter will not be better than climatology.
I still am of the opinion that the vortex is in the early stages of forming and will be disrupted over the next several weeks by anamolous high pressure in Alaska/Siberia (possibly shifting eastward into October). The ECMWF op analysis on this website shows the lowering absolute temp and lowering 10 mb heights in the North Pole region over the past two weeks or so. Additionally, the circular stratospheric wind pattern is slowly returning (since about 9/7) and modeled to increase in the coming weeks.
Obviously it is not as developed as it will be later next month or as developed as the South Pole polar vortex currently is. I am curious to see how long the “heat wave” in Siberia/Alaska (and possibly the Canadian Arctic next month) lasts. I just think this pattern in the early stages of development plus La Niña foster conditions for sudden stratospheric warming events later in the season.
Edit to add: Is it a good forecast? I think so but maybe it will be and maybe it won’t, that’s just the nature of things. I stand by it though.
Fair enough. Certainly true on La Niña fostering conditions for SSW events due to the change in planetary wave propagation. I’m not sold on the very, very early development of the polar vortex being a predictor though. That said, if your forecast holds, I’d be interested in revisiting this conversation. I’ve bookmarked your page and will reach out in the spring if you are correct. We can discuss it further.
Even if it’s wrong I’m interested in discussing it further. I want to improve professionally as much as anyone else does and I appreciate the comments you’ve added.
My science falls more on the mesosphere/stratosphere side from space weather effects (top down rather than bottom up). However, SSW events are fascinating phenomena and have profound impacts on potentially all layers of the atmosphere. I’m currently developing (with lots of help) a high-top forecasting model that extends from the surface to the thermosphere. Forecasting SSW events are something we are hoping to improve with this model having a fully resolved mesosphere. I’ll edit my original post as I was hard on your article. I’ll also DM you my email and we can chat further.
This sounds awesome and I look forward to hearing more about it. It seems like this would be a major step forward especially with medium-range forecasts.