I know the Rambo title card is a hoax.
The COTW was chosen in the wake of the aborted sequel to the attempted assassination of Trump being performed by a guy who is VERY enthusiastic about Ukraine, to the point of trying to sneak Afghan soldiers into Ukraine by setting up a house in Pakistan to house them and then further transport them. He also apparently offered to send thousands of Afghan soldiers to Haiti to help them combat gang violence. Whomst among us doesn't have the numbers of thousands of Afghan soldiers on speed-dial. Do you reckon there's a group chat?
Anyway, while there is still no official recognition of the Taliban's government by any country, China has taken a different course than the late USSR and the US - forming economic in-roads, rather than trying their own invasion. This has been a big boon for the struggling country, with various mines and oil and agriculture deals helping keep things barely afloat. A total disintegration of the social fabric of Afghanistan is not in the interest of any of the powers that border it - China, Pakistan, and Iran, with Russia not too far away - so an interesting dynamic of helping-without-official-recognition has been established. I wonder who will be the first country to fully recognize them?
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Afghanistan! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Speculation on Yemeni and Iranian ballistic missile technology with regards to the new Palestine-2 missile, used in yesterday's strike on Israel
After looking at the footage released of the missile used by Ansar Allah/The Houthis to strike Israel yesterday, I have come to an unlikely conclusion: They and Iran have collaborated to create an extended range version of the two stage Iranian Fattah-1 hypersonic ballistic missile and re-entry vehicle, in combination with parts from the Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and re-entry vehicle. A far fetched conclusion that I didn't believe at first given how new the Fattah-1 missile is and given statements from Iran, but one I view to be the most likely based on the size and shape of the missile, and statements from both sides.According to Yemeni State Media, the Palestine-2 missile:
This rules out all liquid fueled rockets. It also mandates a two stage design, along with a maneuverable warhead and depressed trajectory for stealth. The only place for a seperate stage, given that there are no visible separations or jettison points in the booster stage itself, is the warhead itself.
Experts in Western Media have claimed that the Palestine-2 is a variant of the Kheibar Shekan missile, a statement which is half right. The initial booster stage, along with the rear and front fins are likely from the Kheibar Shekan series of missiles.
However, the warhead of the Kheibar Shekan is different from the one pictured on the Palestine-2, in function. The Kheibar Shekan warhead/re entry vehicle does not have its own rocket stage, so it is not a two stage rocket system. Once it is jettisoned from the booster rocket, it can manoeuvre on its own to avoid interception, but it has no power of its own, meaning it only impacts the target at a speed of Mach 2-3. In appearance, only the fins are the same. By contrast, the Fattah-1 warhead contains its own rocket stage, something that would be required for the Palestine-2 to be a two staged rocket system. From a visual standpoint
Palestine-2 warhead:
Comparison between Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan:
Fattah-1 second stage motor:
As for the range, Iran has reported in the past that they would be able to extend the range of the Fattah-1 to 2000km. Could the Palestine-2 be the end result of such efforts? I'd guess so.
As for how the Fattah-1 works, I came across this white paper PDF by the "Missile Defence Advocacy alliance that explains how it functions. In short, is the Fattah-1 a true hypersonic weapon? My answer is that it is as close as you can yet using ballistic missile technology and without using a lift generating re-entry vehicle/hypersonic glide vehicle, which the successor Fattah-2 aims to do. Ultimately agility while in the terminal phase is limited by the four fins and limited thrust vectoring on the second stage, in short it can probably dodge a bit, but it can't do a full turn. Most of the maneuvering probably takes place before the final dive to the target. However, the additional rocket stage on the re-entry vehicle/warhead allows for manoeuvres and a trajectory that would not otherwise be possible with a ballistic missile, explained here.
This could explain the stealth capabilities of the missile, and why Israel detected it so late. The depressed trajectory, as well as relatively low altitude during the "pull up phase", means that ground radars cannot detect the initial launch and would lose track of the warhead during the pull up phase due to the earth's curvature. However, there will be a large heat signature due to the second rocket stage.