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this post was submitted on 20 Sep 2024
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I will bet $200 that helion is not the first net positive fusion reactor. I will bet a further $200 that the first such reactor is in China. That said, talk is cheap and I doubt many here would take that bet against me.
My prediction: China will have the first working net positive fusion reactor deployed in the field, but some US company will preempt the announcement by claiming to have the first one.
US fusion deployments won't happen for 2-3 years after that announcement, at which point China will have half their grid running on fusion power.
Americans will all widely proclaim to be the "inventors" of fusion and winners of the space race, despite all reactors sold coming from China. Any attempts to present this information to them will result in a screed about "China stealing" or some shit.
the US is way more than 2-3 years behind. it's got to be at least 30 years. fusion was abandoned by US researchers in the 60's.
what abt 200 xi bucks instead
I'd bet life savings the same way. Without a signficant newsworthy breakthrough that we'd already heard about, there's not a chance in hell this company is making energy from nuclear fusion in 4 years.